Who Will Win? Who Should Win?

We have arrived at my most hated blog post of the year.  Who's to say who is a good prognosticator and who isn't?  Last year, there were so many surprises that my predictions were decimated (so were most experts, but that didn't make it less frustrating!).  The thing that most experts have identified this year is that last year there was a major shakeup in the Academy, and hundreds of new voters were added, changing the general demographic of voters very slightly, but perhaps enough to alter what academy members have traditionally done.  That makes this year so exciting but hard to predict.  So here's what I think, and I've done a ton of research on what the experts think and what top predictors have thought, and all I can do is make my best guess.  Good luck to all of us!

Best Picture:
What Should Win: 3 Billboards Outside of Ebbing Missouri
I was really moved by this film and it wasn't the same as every other film out there.  It was original and the performances were outstanding.  I was moved to tears on many occasions.  It was phenomenal.
What Will Win: ?
Guys, I heard a film critic for over 20 years say yesterday that this is the first year that he has literally no idea what will win.  It's probably between 3 Billboards, The Shape of Water, and a surprising dark horse candidate, Get Out.  I have absolutely no clue which it will be.  None.  Even the experts are split among these three!

Actor in a Leading Role:
Who Should Win: Gary Oldman, The Darkest Hour
Who Will Win: Gary Oldman
It's very rare that the SAG winner isn't the Oscars winner, and by the way, he was unrecognizable in this movie, and not just because of the makeup.  Unbelievable.

Actress in a Leading Role:
Who Should Win: Frances McDormand, 3 Billboards
Who Will Win: Frances McDormand
She is an incredible actress, of course, but there was something raw in this performance that only McDormand can do.

Actor in a Supporting Role:
Who Should Win: Woody Harrelson, 3 Billboards
Who Will Win: Sam Rockwell, 3 Billboards
I thought this was Woody Harrelson's best performance of his career.  But Hollywood likes a messy character much more than a quiet and valiant one.  So Rockwell will keep up his winning streak.

Actress in a Supporting Role:
Who Should Win: 3 way tie between Allison Janney (I, Tonya), Laurie Metcalf (Lady Bird) and Lesley Manville (Phantom Thread)
Who Will Win: Allison Janney, I Tonya
I'm obsessed with Allison Janney.  What isn't she GREAT in?  Nothing.  Every actor who works with her says she is a savant.  She's won all of the major prizes this year, she'll keep it up.  And she'll be on her way to an EGOT, for sure.  We're with ya, Flamingo! (please see West Wing history for reference.)

Director:
Who Should Win: Jordan Peele, Get Out
Who Will Win: Guillermo del Toro, The Shape of Water
del Toro has been dreaming of this movie since he was a kid and saw The Creature in the Black Lagoon.  I think most people agree that if he was going to win this award, it should have been for Pan's Labyrinth, his most interesting film to date.  Also, he won the DGA award, which is a pretty strong predictor of the Oscars.  You can check my stats, but my (so so) memory is telling me that in the last 30 years or so, the DGA and Oscars have disagreed less than 5 times.

Animated Feature:
What Should Win: Coco
What Will Win: Coco
I'm not crying, you're crying.  This was just the sweetest and most loving of the year.  Sorry, The Boss Baby.

Cinematography:
What Should Win: Blade Runner 2049
What Will Win: Most experts are calling Blade Runner, but if The Shape of Water is having a good night, sometimes these categories go to the films with the most momentum.
If you recall the blog post, I mentioned that from the moment I saw Blade Runner, I knew it would be nominated for multiple visual categories, and this one is no exception.  Plus, the sheer number of different kinds of lighting and settings alone SHOULD put Blade Runner over the top.  We'll see!

Costume Design:
What Will Win: Phantom Thread
What Should Win: Phantom Thread
With a close second to Victoria and Abdul.  If you saw those costumes, you would agree.

Documentary Feature:
What Should Win: For impact, Icarus; For Delight, Faces Places
What Will Win: Faces Places
I think this funny film will actually triumph.  Icarus brought down an entire country's entry into the Olympics, that's pretty impressive.  But I haven't been able to stop talking or thinking about Faces Places.  I hope it wins.

Documentary Short:
What Should Win: Heroin(e)... Knife Skills a close second
What Will Win: The experts are predicting Edith+Eddie.  I'm predicting Herion(e)
It's timely, it's about women leading and making an impact.  If #metoo has any influence in the voting, the story about kick ass women will win out.

Film Editing:
What Should Win: Dunkirk
What Will win: Dunkirk
A close second to I,Tonya, for which the whole narrative thread of the movie relies on the editing.  But with almost no dialogue, the editing of Dunkirk is the star of the film.

Foreign Language:
What Should Win: A Fantastic Woman, Chile
What Will Win: Una Mujer Fantastica, Chile!
Seriously, please try to go see this film.  It's beyond wonderful.  And with transgender rights under constant assault, this movie is excellent AND topical.

Makeup and Hairstyling:
What Should Win: The Darkest Hour
What Will Win: The Darkest Hour
Can you even find Gary Oldman under there?  NO YOU CAN'T.  Bravo!

Original Score:
What Should Win: Star Wars: The Last Jedi
What Will Win: The Phantom Thread
Well, maybe Dunkirk.  But yes, The Phantom Thread's score was just gorgeous but I will never ever choose anyone over my beloved John Williams.

Original Song:
What Should Win: This Is Me, The Greatest Showman
What Will Win: I'm defying the experts - I think it will be This is Me.  
This is often a category that surprises even the experts, who are predicting Remember Me from Coco.  This Is Me is so the anthem that we need right now. To stand up to power, to stand up to these white supremacists taking hold and being blessed by this administration - this song celebrates being who you are.  I think it will win.

Production Design:
What Should Win: Blade Runner 2049
What Will Win: The experts are calling it for The Shape of Water
I just can't see how it could possibly be anything but Blade Runner 2049.  They created a whole damn universe!  The Shape of Water was beautiful and interesting, but it was predictable.  

Animated Short:
What Should Win: Dear Basketball
What Will Win: Dear Basketball
A very close second in Lou, that teaches the bully to be nice, but Dear Basketball had me crying every time I watched it.

Live Action Short:
What Should Win: The Silent Child
What Will Win: DeKalb Elementary
With Oscars voting just closing in the last week with gun violence in schools at center stage, I can't see how any other film is more topical than DeKalb.  And it's based on a true story.

Sound Editing:
What Should Win: Star Wars: The Last Jedi
What Will Win: Dunkirk
Again, the film relied on its sound editing and sound mixing and that's why it will win.  But, I think it's important to point out that the lack of dialogue in the film makes this and the other category suspect as a winner.

Sound Mixing:
What Should Win: Star Wars: The Last Jedi
What Will Win: Dunkirk
Again, the sound mixers barely had any dialogue, which means that there were fewer layers than what the other sound mixers were challenged to do.  But Dunkirk seems to be the sound darling this year.

Visual Effects:
What Should Win: Blade Runner 2049
What Will Win: Blade Runner 2049
The effects in this film were absolutely incredible.  Beyond incredible.  A close second to Guardians of the Galaxy, Vol 2.

Adapted Screenplay:
What Should Win: The Disaster Artist
What Will Win: Call Me By Your Name
The screenplay category often goes to one of the great films in the Best Pic category that will almost certainly not win.  Call Me By Your Name was beloved this year (if not by me), and it's the only nominee in this category that is also nominated for Best Picture.  And by the way, isn't that crazy?  9 Best Picture nominees and only one of them nominated for Adapted Screenplay.

Original Screenplay:
What Should Win: The Big Sick
What Will Win: Get Out
Same rationale (though 4 of the 5 nominees are nominated for Best Picture), and Get Out does have a chance at winning Best Picture.  But this film is so lauded (deservedly) and so loved, I think many will choose this screenplay as their consolation prize to the Best Picture category.  Ultimately, Get Out is arguably a more important film than The Big Sick, but I thought the writing was so sharp, that if I had a vote, that's what it would go for.

See you tonight!  I'll be live tweeting my reactions, feel free to follow me @JodiBee - I always love when the big day arrives.  Don't forget to check out my summary of the show tomorrow!