Who Will Win? Who Should Win?

We have arrived at my most hated blog post of the year.  Who's to say who is a good prognosticator and who isn't?  Last year, there were so many surprises that my predictions were decimated (so were most experts, but that didn't make it less frustrating!).  The thing that most experts have identified this year is that last year there was a major shakeup in the Academy, and hundreds of new voters were added, changing the general demographic of voters very slightly, but perhaps enough to alter what academy members have traditionally done.  That makes this year so exciting but hard to predict.  So here's what I think, and I've done a ton of research on what the experts think and what top predictors have thought, and all I can do is make my best guess.  Good luck to all of us!

Best Picture:
What Should Win: 3 Billboards Outside of Ebbing Missouri
I was really moved by this film and it wasn't the same as every other film out there.  It was original and the performances were outstanding.  I was moved to tears on many occasions.  It was phenomenal.
What Will Win: ?
Guys, I heard a film critic for over 20 years say yesterday that this is the first year that he has literally no idea what will win.  It's probably between 3 Billboards, The Shape of Water, and a surprising dark horse candidate, Get Out.  I have absolutely no clue which it will be.  None.  Even the experts are split among these three!

Actor in a Leading Role:
Who Should Win: Gary Oldman, The Darkest Hour
Who Will Win: Gary Oldman
It's very rare that the SAG winner isn't the Oscars winner, and by the way, he was unrecognizable in this movie, and not just because of the makeup.  Unbelievable.

Actress in a Leading Role:
Who Should Win: Frances McDormand, 3 Billboards
Who Will Win: Frances McDormand
She is an incredible actress, of course, but there was something raw in this performance that only McDormand can do.

Actor in a Supporting Role:
Who Should Win: Woody Harrelson, 3 Billboards
Who Will Win: Sam Rockwell, 3 Billboards
I thought this was Woody Harrelson's best performance of his career.  But Hollywood likes a messy character much more than a quiet and valiant one.  So Rockwell will keep up his winning streak.

Actress in a Supporting Role:
Who Should Win: 3 way tie between Allison Janney (I, Tonya), Laurie Metcalf (Lady Bird) and Lesley Manville (Phantom Thread)
Who Will Win: Allison Janney, I Tonya
I'm obsessed with Allison Janney.  What isn't she GREAT in?  Nothing.  Every actor who works with her says she is a savant.  She's won all of the major prizes this year, she'll keep it up.  And she'll be on her way to an EGOT, for sure.  We're with ya, Flamingo! (please see West Wing history for reference.)

Director:
Who Should Win: Jordan Peele, Get Out
Who Will Win: Guillermo del Toro, The Shape of Water
del Toro has been dreaming of this movie since he was a kid and saw The Creature in the Black Lagoon.  I think most people agree that if he was going to win this award, it should have been for Pan's Labyrinth, his most interesting film to date.  Also, he won the DGA award, which is a pretty strong predictor of the Oscars.  You can check my stats, but my (so so) memory is telling me that in the last 30 years or so, the DGA and Oscars have disagreed less than 5 times.

Animated Feature:
What Should Win: Coco
What Will Win: Coco
I'm not crying, you're crying.  This was just the sweetest and most loving of the year.  Sorry, The Boss Baby.

Cinematography:
What Should Win: Blade Runner 2049
What Will Win: Most experts are calling Blade Runner, but if The Shape of Water is having a good night, sometimes these categories go to the films with the most momentum.
If you recall the blog post, I mentioned that from the moment I saw Blade Runner, I knew it would be nominated for multiple visual categories, and this one is no exception.  Plus, the sheer number of different kinds of lighting and settings alone SHOULD put Blade Runner over the top.  We'll see!

Costume Design:
What Will Win: Phantom Thread
What Should Win: Phantom Thread
With a close second to Victoria and Abdul.  If you saw those costumes, you would agree.

Documentary Feature:
What Should Win: For impact, Icarus; For Delight, Faces Places
What Will Win: Faces Places
I think this funny film will actually triumph.  Icarus brought down an entire country's entry into the Olympics, that's pretty impressive.  But I haven't been able to stop talking or thinking about Faces Places.  I hope it wins.

Documentary Short:
What Should Win: Heroin(e)... Knife Skills a close second
What Will Win: The experts are predicting Edith+Eddie.  I'm predicting Herion(e)
It's timely, it's about women leading and making an impact.  If #metoo has any influence in the voting, the story about kick ass women will win out.

Film Editing:
What Should Win: Dunkirk
What Will win: Dunkirk
A close second to I,Tonya, for which the whole narrative thread of the movie relies on the editing.  But with almost no dialogue, the editing of Dunkirk is the star of the film.

Foreign Language:
What Should Win: A Fantastic Woman, Chile
What Will Win: Una Mujer Fantastica, Chile!
Seriously, please try to go see this film.  It's beyond wonderful.  And with transgender rights under constant assault, this movie is excellent AND topical.

Makeup and Hairstyling:
What Should Win: The Darkest Hour
What Will Win: The Darkest Hour
Can you even find Gary Oldman under there?  NO YOU CAN'T.  Bravo!

Original Score:
What Should Win: Star Wars: The Last Jedi
What Will Win: The Phantom Thread
Well, maybe Dunkirk.  But yes, The Phantom Thread's score was just gorgeous but I will never ever choose anyone over my beloved John Williams.

Original Song:
What Should Win: This Is Me, The Greatest Showman
What Will Win: I'm defying the experts - I think it will be This is Me.  
This is often a category that surprises even the experts, who are predicting Remember Me from Coco.  This Is Me is so the anthem that we need right now. To stand up to power, to stand up to these white supremacists taking hold and being blessed by this administration - this song celebrates being who you are.  I think it will win.

Production Design:
What Should Win: Blade Runner 2049
What Will Win: The experts are calling it for The Shape of Water
I just can't see how it could possibly be anything but Blade Runner 2049.  They created a whole damn universe!  The Shape of Water was beautiful and interesting, but it was predictable.  

Animated Short:
What Should Win: Dear Basketball
What Will Win: Dear Basketball
A very close second in Lou, that teaches the bully to be nice, but Dear Basketball had me crying every time I watched it.

Live Action Short:
What Should Win: The Silent Child
What Will Win: DeKalb Elementary
With Oscars voting just closing in the last week with gun violence in schools at center stage, I can't see how any other film is more topical than DeKalb.  And it's based on a true story.

Sound Editing:
What Should Win: Star Wars: The Last Jedi
What Will Win: Dunkirk
Again, the film relied on its sound editing and sound mixing and that's why it will win.  But, I think it's important to point out that the lack of dialogue in the film makes this and the other category suspect as a winner.

Sound Mixing:
What Should Win: Star Wars: The Last Jedi
What Will Win: Dunkirk
Again, the sound mixers barely had any dialogue, which means that there were fewer layers than what the other sound mixers were challenged to do.  But Dunkirk seems to be the sound darling this year.

Visual Effects:
What Should Win: Blade Runner 2049
What Will Win: Blade Runner 2049
The effects in this film were absolutely incredible.  Beyond incredible.  A close second to Guardians of the Galaxy, Vol 2.

Adapted Screenplay:
What Should Win: The Disaster Artist
What Will Win: Call Me By Your Name
The screenplay category often goes to one of the great films in the Best Pic category that will almost certainly not win.  Call Me By Your Name was beloved this year (if not by me), and it's the only nominee in this category that is also nominated for Best Picture.  And by the way, isn't that crazy?  9 Best Picture nominees and only one of them nominated for Adapted Screenplay.

Original Screenplay:
What Should Win: The Big Sick
What Will Win: Get Out
Same rationale (though 4 of the 5 nominees are nominated for Best Picture), and Get Out does have a chance at winning Best Picture.  But this film is so lauded (deservedly) and so loved, I think many will choose this screenplay as their consolation prize to the Best Picture category.  Ultimately, Get Out is arguably a more important film than The Big Sick, but I thought the writing was so sharp, that if I had a vote, that's what it would go for.

See you tonight!  I'll be live tweeting my reactions, feel free to follow me @JodiBee - I always love when the big day arrives.  Don't forget to check out my summary of the show tomorrow!

Foreign Films - all 5 nominees

A Fantastic Woman, Chile; Directed by Sebastián Lelio

A Fantastic Woman is the story of Marina, a trans woman in a loving relationship with her partner, Orlando, who dies suddenly at the beginning of the film.  The humiliations exacted upon her from government officials and most of Orlando's family are indescribable.  From the moment that Orlando's son comes home for the funeral, he all but kicks Marina out of her home, and even steals her dog.  She is told explicitly that she is not welcome at the funeral to mourn her lover.  Marina is strong in some ways and also extremely vulnerable.  She has an exquisite voice, and she will not be so easily knocked off the path to her dreams.  It's a beautiful movie.

The Insult, Lebanon; Directed by Ziad Doueiri

Here's how the day begins - a Lebanese Christian, Tony, has an illegal drain system on his balcony.  A team of construction workers have been charged with doing repairs on the building, one of these repairs is to bring this drain system up to code, but it so happens that the foreman is a Palestinian Muslim, Yasser.  After repairing the drain, Tony takes a hammer to it, and Yasser yells at him and curses at him.  The next day, Yasser goes to Tony to apologize, at which time Tony screams that it would have been better if the Israeli's had killed all of the Palestinians, in exchange for which Yasser punches Tony.  This results not only in a lawsuit, but in the entire community taking sides, each insult escalating into greater and greater insults.  (Somehow, this dispute between these two men is ultimately blamed on the Jews, so you can tell how insane the escalation goes.)  The story is personal, political, existential, and very well done.

Loveless, Russia; Directed by Andrey Zvyagintsev

Two divorcing parents begin the movie by discussing how neither of them wants their son, and how they will give him up to an orphanage, sadly, this 12 year old boy overhears this discussion and goes to bed devastated.  They have both moved on from each other and already have new partners, both so self absorbed that they have no idea what their son is doing most of the time.  It is not until the school calls that either has any idea that their son is even missing.  The rest of the film is them and a search and rescue team trying to find the boy.  I found the film slow, frustrating (because the characters are such assholes), and deeply unsatisfying.

On Body and Soul, Hungary; Directed by Ildikó Enyedi

There's always a weird one in the foreign film category, and this one is it.  An older man, Endre, and a strange young woman, Maria discover that they are dreaming the same dreams in which they frolic together as deer in the wilderness.  They build a strange friendship and relationship, he the confirmed bachelor no longer interested in love, and she the icy loner who seems to have no need for the most casual of connection.  I didn't dislike the film, but it takes a certain amount of focus to watch.

The Square, Sweden; Directed by Ruben Östlund

"The Square is a sanctuary of trust and caring. Within it we all share equal rights and obligations." This is the display in modern art museum curated by main character, Christian.  And then the film embarks on a series of "what would you do" scenarios - would you help a person being attacked, would you stalk a community if you thought a member of that community stole your wallet and phone, would you stand idly by while a woman is being dragged by her hair, would you call a woman after you've slept with her, would you bring your children to a poor community and engage them in helping others, the list goes on and on.  The film is as much a cutting edge art piece as is portrayed in the film.  It is long, but if you like a good thinker, this is a good movie for you.

War for the Planet of the Apes - 1 nomination

Visual Effects, Joe Letteri, Daniel Barrett, Dan Lemmon and Joel Whist

This is the third in the reimagined Planet of the Apes in which talking ape, Caesar leads the village of apes, all of whom can speak or sign to communicate.  This community has been at war with the humans for what we gather is some time, and scouts have discovered a desert to which all of the apes could escape, thereby ending the war with the humans.  One night, a soldier comes and murders some of the community, including Caesar's own wife and child.  Caesar is blinding by rage and vows to avenge his family, while he sends the apes to escape.  Unfortunately, he discovers that all of the apes have been captured by the soldiers and are put to work in a forced labor camp.  Meanwhile, we discover that the rest of the army is not necessarily aligned with this band of soldiers and their plans, so there are multiple wars happening concurrently.  That's more than enough of a plot summary, so let me tell you some additional things about the film.

First, Andy Sirkus (who plays Caesar) is at some point just going to be owed an Oscar.  He is the king of motion capture having played "my precious" Gollum and so many others.  I don't know how to describe the humanity that Sirkus gave Caesar in this film.  The effects obviously contribute significantly to making this world seem real.  Dawn of the Planet of the Apes also was nominated in this category, and I think it boils down to how real the apes seem, even though there are lots of explosions and other effects that contribute to the story.

I was surprised to have liked this film as much as I did.  Thanks to Oscars nominations, I've actually seen the entire trilogy, and this movie brought a very satisfying conclusion to the story.

Logan - 1 nomination

Adapted Screenplay, Screenplay by Scott Frank & James Mangold and Michael Green; Story by James Mangold

Logan/Wolverine is one of the last known mutants alive.  Professor X, the leader of the X Men, is slowly dying and Logan is caring for him.  Along the way, he discovers that there is a young girl who is not only a mutant, she appears to have similar but enhanced powers to the Wolverine; she also has incredible healing powers and knives that emerge from her hands like he does but in addition, she also has knives that emerge from her feet.  A kind woman busts her out of a secret facility building and exploiting mutant children, and seeks out Logan to help protect the girl.  All of these children seem to be victims of a plot to use them as weapons.  Logan's mission becomes clear - move this girl and the other children to safety, out of the hands of the people who would exploit them.

Logan is an excellent film, maybe one of the best of the X Men series.  Hugh Jackman is wonderful, as always, but what makes him so good is that he is the Wolverine we know, but the more worn down version of this character.  Professor Charles Xavier is also different than the person we have grown to know and love, as he is more vulnerable if not less wise.

I was surprised to see Logan nominated as an Adapted Screenplay, or frankly, to be nominated at all.  But I think what got this film to the top 5 is that the character arcs of people who have been so familiar to us through 9 X Men films that have featured these characters (there are actually 10 X Men films, if you count Deadpool, but neither Professor X nor Wolverine appear in that film) have evolved, have grown tired, have become different people than just the cookie cutter Wolverine and ProfX that we have always known.  The story of the end of a superhero's life has a totally different tone to the rest of them, even with all of the regular and expected action scenes.

I loved this film, I was moved by the ending in particular.

Kong: Skull Island - 1 nomination

Visual Effects, Stephen Rosenbaum, Jeff White, Scott Benza and Mike Meinardus

I sat down to write this blog post and I thought, "I'm writing an Oscars blog post.  For Academy Award nominee, King Kong.  Am I drunk right now?"  Well guess what? King Kong in 1977 was not only NOMINATED for three Academy Awards, it actually WON one, for none other than Visual Effects.  So take that Ms. Judgy McJudgerson!

This film is your basic Kong experience, a giant monkey inhabits an uncharted island.  A team of scientists come to explore said island accompanied by the military and photojournalist,and they quickly discover that Kong is not the bad guy, but the protector of the island from underground giant lizards called "Skullcrawlers."  Lots of people die and lots of crazy monsters die and at the end of the film, we get an obligatory post credits hint that there will be more of these films hunting down other fantastical and dangerous creatures like Godzilla.

It's not a terribly serious film, but it's fun, has great one liners,  and was surprisingly entertaining.  There will always be an audience for these films so they'll just keep making them. And while I'm taking stock, the visual effects (and the setting of the film) are gorgeous and so cool.  So, ok Skull Island, I'm giving you an Oscars pass!

Victoria and Abdul - 2 nominations

Costume Design, Consolata Boyle
Makeup and Hairstyling, Daniel Phillips and Lou Sheppard

Victoria and Abdul tells the story of England's Queen Victoria (Judi Dench) in the late 1800's and her unlikely friendship with a young man from India who becomes her trusted advisor and teacher.  This relationship comes much to the chagrin of her family (especially her son Bertie, future heir to the throne), her staff, her advisors and the British government.  Queen Victoria knows her power and her standing as the Queen of England and the Empress of India, and she refuses to be bullied into or out of the relationships she chooses.  

Here's a funny bit of trivia, in the film, the Queen talks about how much she misses John Brown, the man that Queen Victoria had a close relationship with earlier in her life after her husband died.  There was even a movie made about that relationship in 1997, and the woman who played the Queen in that film?  You guessed it.  It was Judi Dench.  So perhaps, in a way, Queen Victoria/Judi Dench was reminiscing about John Brown/Billy Connelly!

Either way, this film was just a pleasure.  Another one that is based on true events (we don't know how true, or which were real events), but it's fun to imagine a stalwart Queen who knows her own mind and won't take any guff from anyone.  The costumes and makeup and hairstyling are of course wonderful, as they often are in period pieces.  (Period pieces do remarkably well at the Oscars.)  I highly recommend Victoria and Abdul for a solid piece of lovely entertainment.

Star Wars: The Last Jedi - 4 nominations

Original Score, John Williams (his 51st nomination, and remember the rabbit hole I went down during Costume Design? John Williams has been nominated against HIMSELF for two movies in the Original Score category 5 times.)

Sound Editing, Matthew Wood and Ren Klyce

Sound Mixing, David Parker, Michael Semanick, Ren Klyce and Stuart Wilson

Visual Effects, Ben Morris, Mike Mulholland, Neal Scanlan and Chris Corbould

Fans of the blog know that I loved Star Wars: The Last Jedi before I even saw it.  I love Star Wars.  I'm obsessed with Star Wars.  I liked the prequels, I like Jar Jar Binks, I'm just all in on the franchise.  So when I say that this film was excellent (with a few plot holes), I'm certainly coming from a biased point of view, but I'm also being honest when I say that it's a really great film.  

This is the second installment of the recent franchise in which scavenger Rey finds Luke Skywalker and begs him to train her in the ways of the force.  Skywalker is reluctant to get back into the Jedi training game.  Having been scarred by his experience training young Kylo Ren who turned to the dark side and who has become the now powerful sith eager to continue Darth Vader's dream of ruling the galaxy.  Kylo Ren is under the tutelage and leadership of the evil Snoke and uses the force for evil and not for good.

Meanwhile, back at the resistance, General Leah Organa (Carrie Fisher, and yes, I did cry almost every time she was on screen, what's it to ya?) is doing her best to keep all of our beloved characters focused on overthrowing the sinister First Order.  

There is much more to the story and there are some terrific newcomers into the Star Wars universe.  But one of the most interesting pieces of this film is the connection between our young Jedi hopeful Rey and Kylo Ren.  They communicate across space and when they are finally together, they join forces to fight a brief battle.  And here's one of the most compelling pieces of the film. The two have fought off enemies together, and they realize that the resistance is heading toward a trap spelling certain destruction by the First Order.  Ren says to her, let's forget about all these people, let them destroy each other and then let's start together afresh and make the world the place we want it to be together.  Now, we know that a moral and ethical person like Rey could never accept the destruction of good people fighting the resistance.  But it is easy to see how Kylo Ren can frame this situation as neither good nor bad, and let's just embrace a fresh reality without good and without evil that is just right.  Lots of morally relativistic questions in this proposal, but it goes to show that good and evil are frameworks that depend on the lens that you look through.  What an important idea in the midst of an excellent piece of entertainment.  

I'd have given this film many more nominations if I were the Oscars Czarina, but in the meantime, I highly recommend seeing it.  The visual effects, the sound, and especially the score are among the finest in film this year.  Yay Star Wars!

Baby Driver - 3 nominations

Film Editing, Paul Machliss and Jonathan Amos

Sound Editing, Julian Slater

Sound Mixing, Julian Slater, Tim Cavagin and Mary H. Ellis

Baby Driver is about a young guy named Baby (Ansel Elgort) who is in debt to a criminal mob boss named Doc (Kevin Spacey) who puts together teams of criminals to rob banks.  With each score, Baby is the getaway driver (an outstanding one at that), and each take gets him further and further out of his debt.  Baby falls in love with a young night shift waitress, and he becomes determined to leave this life and Doc, as soon as he can.  He is compelled into a big hit and hopes that this will be the final one.  

More than anything else, the standout of this film is the music.  Every song beautifully and expertly matches what is happening in the scene, and even Baby relies on his music to get him through the high speed chases as they escape the crime scenes.  The movie was fine for action but also funny with really well drawn and interesting characters - each band of criminals has enough to them to be highly entertaining.  I doubt that the film will fare well at the Oscars, but will do for a good night on the couch watching a movie with friends and family.

Documentary Features - 5 nominations

Abacus: Small Enough to Jail, Steve James, Mark Mitten and Julie Goldman

Abacus looks back at the financial crisis and mortgage fraud epidemic and examines a small bank, of service to the Chinese community in New York, who discovered and reported one of their bankers was guilty of fraud, only to find themselves the target of an SEC investigation.  Criminal charges were filed in the case. In the collapse of the economy, Abacus (the name of the bank) was the single bank in America to be charged with mortgage fraud.  All of the big guys were instead bailed out by the US without parameters that even required them to give up bonuses or extravagant expenditures.  This small family owned bank had a very compelling case, and one can't help but suspect that racism is the cause of this single bank being picked on and targeted.  It's an excellent film.

Faces Places, Agnès Varda, JR and Rosalie Varda

It's rare to get a fun, funny, adorable film into the top 5 documentary nominees, but this film is a breath of fresh air.  88 year old filmmaker Agnes Varda teams up with 33 year old photographer and muralist JR to travel around France transforming spaces into art pieces.  Their relationship is the sweetest part of the film, but watching them create art together, engaging the communities and the people that they capture is incredible.  Their work is sometimes heart wrenching and sometimes hilarious, and always impactful.  This was my favorite of the five films.

Icarus, Bryan Fogel and Dan Cogan

What an interesting time to be watching a documentary about doping during the Olympics, the very Olympics when Russia has been officially banned from state participation (although they made accommodations for athletes who have tested "clean").  As an observer of the Lance Armstrong scandal and so many others, it's hard to wrap your head around HOW these athletes and teams have been able to get away with it, when there are so many safeguards to the testing.  This film answers all those questions and more.  And to be honest, I'm much more cynical after watching the film.  Anytime you believe that the opposing team is up to no good and your team is the only moral, ethical one, you're most certainly deluding yourself or at least being willfully naive.  If this film doesn't challenge all of us to be more suspicious across the board, I don't know what will.  As an aside, every time I see anything about doping in sports, I recall the hilarious Saturday Night Live sketch for the "All Drug Olympics."  Here's the link: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=jAdG-iTilWU  You're welcome.

The Last Men in Aleppo, Feras Fayyad, Kareem Abeed and Søren Steen Jespersen

The Last Men in Aleppo is the continuation of last year's winning Documentary Short, The White Helmets.  The devastation and destruction in Syria continues with the aid of the Russian military, more and more people try fleeing to Turkey, and the situation is even more dire than last year (although we didn't think that possible).  The movie gets more personal this time, with a deeper dive into the lives of these brave men who rush to the sites of bombings to help recover dead bodies, and to help save anyone trapped in the rubble.  These men know that if they stay in Syria they have no future.  They talk about their deaths as though they are just weeks and months away, knowing that Bashar Al Asaad will not stop until they are all dead.  These are the people who I think about when considering what it takes to get people to leave their beloved homelands - these men suspect they will die in Syria, but feel compelled to stay.

Strong Island, Yance Ford and Joslyn Barnes

Strong Island follows the story of the Ford family, desperate to understand how their beloved son and brother came to be murdered, and his murderers never charged by the Grand Jury rendering them forever without justice.  My friend Steve has a saying that I always think of with stories like this, "Understanding is the booby prize."  Never more true than here - no amount of understanding will ever bring back William Ford, and yet in this case, understanding is all they have left in this horrific tale where a young black man can be shot point blank and still have his white killer not convicted.  Yance Ford is the filmmaker and also the sister, and her vulnerability and her willingness to show her own devastation makes this film truly powerful.

The trailers:

Strong Island and Icarus are available on Netflix.

Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 2 - 1 nomination

Visual Effects, Christopher Townsend, Guy Williams, Jonathan Fawkner and Dan Sudick

Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 2 is the next installment of this Marvel powerhouse where we reunite with Peter Quill/Star Lord (Chris Pratt) and his little gang of misfit superheroes - Gamora, the rejected daughter of the scary god Thanos who is out to rule the world, Drax, the super he-man on steroids, Rocket, the wise ass raccoon who is also a bounty hunter scavenger, and of course Teenager Groot, the reincarnation of the tree who saved our heroes' lives in the last film.  This time, we get to meet Quill's real father Ego, who brings the group to a magnificent planet, but even though idyllic, something isn't quite right.  

If you've followed the blog, you know I'm a Marvel fan to the max, and this film did not disappoint.  If possible, the sequel exceeded the high bar set by the original film.  A hallmark of the original movie is the mix tape left for Peter Quill by his mother and in this film, he discovers Vol. 2 of the mix tape, which also does not disappoint.

The visual effects are stunning, beyond all expectations.  I loooooooooooved this film and so did every member of my family.  It does not disappoint!  I won't tell you more about the film, spoilers are oh-so unfair in the Marvel world, so to see all of the juicy details that I didn't describe, you'll have to see the movie yourself!

Molly's Game - 1 nomination

Adapted Screenplay, Aaron Sorkin

Molly's Game is the (based on a true) story of Molly Bloom (Jessica Chasten)  a former Olympic athlete who got into the world of high stakes poker servicing Hollywood stars, superstar athletes, high powered business people, and ultimately (and she claims unknowingly), the Russian mob.  The laws about what makes her actions legal versus illegal seem to skate along a very thin edge, but Bloom claims that for the majority of her decade running tables, all of her actions were completely legal.  As the Russian mob begins to get involved, the FBI takes an interest in Bloom, ultimately raiding her apartment in the middle of the night.  Her lawyer, Charlie Jaffey (Idris Elba) seems to be the only one on her side.

The writing on this film is phenomenal.  It's precise, it's tight, it's engaging.  It's Sorkin.  I'm a Sorkin groupie (West Wing forever!), and this movie exemplifies why.  He managed to take a topic about which I know less than nothing (I don't even know how to play poker), and I both understood what was happening and I was on the edge of my seat.  Jessica Chastain was almost certainly on the short list of Best Actress nominees, but this film didn't quite break through the way the other nominees' films did.  It is also just a matter of time for Idris Elba's first Oscar nom.

At any rate, I would not only recommend this film, but I intend to watch it again.  It was excellent.

Marshall - 1 nomination

Original Song, "Stand Up for Something," Music by Diane Warren; Lyric by Lonnie R. Lynn and Diane Warren

Could someone please explain to me why nobody has heard of this incredible movie?  I don't recall seeing a single piece of advertising, a preview at a movie (I see a lot of movies, as you can imagine), a single ad in a magazine.  Dear PR team for this film, you're fired!

This film follows a young Thurgood Marshall who travels the country for the NAACP and defends hopeless African Americans who have been charged with crimes they didn't commit just because they are black.  In this case, Joseph Spell (Sterling K Brown) is accused of rape and attempted murder by a wealthy white woman, desperate for her husband not to find out that they slept together.  Marshall partners with another attorney, as the court will not grant him privilege to serve in a state where he is not licensed, so Sam Friedman (Josh Gad) becomes the official "of counsel" to the defendant.  Together, they work hard to earn a not guilty verdict.

Chadwick Boseman is making a career out of biopics having played Jackie Robinson, James Brown, and now Thurgood Marshall (he is certainly on his way to an Oscars nomination in the future).  If it was up to me, I'd keep giving him these juicy real-life roles.  He was different in each film, managing to pay homage to the real person without it being a cheesy impression of the real person.

Now, I don't know how much of this film is based on fact, or is historical, but it is worth every minute of the two hours to watch it.  The song is glorious (thank you Diane Warren and her NINTH Oscars nomination for Original Song) and powerful, and means something even as the events of today unfold.  I am MAD that I didn't see this film or even know about it before the Oscars nominated this song.  Now that you know about it, see it.

The Florida Project - 1 nomination

Actor in a Supporting Role - Willem DaFoe

The Florida Project follows the poor residents of a motel near Disney World, where people live for extended periods of time.  The children in the complex are unruly, the parents in the complex are mostly people who are down on their luck in some way, scraping by to keep a roof over their heads.  Moonee is 6 years old, precocious, and a bit of a trouble maker.  Her mom gets by in any way she can, sometimes legally, sometimes illegally.  Her mom, Halley, does what she can to keep an eye on Moonee, but she is untroubled by the shenanigans that Moonee gets into.  Willem Dafoe is the manager of the motel complex, and he has a soft spot for Halley and Moonee, and deals with the grind of low income living.

For the first 25 minutes of this film, I couldn't find a single redeeming element.  I hated the kids who were wild and rude, I thought Willem Dafoe was fine, but this part was certainly not Oscar worthy, so I had to go back to watch it again to see what all the fuss was about.  But I gave it a second chance.  

Truth be told, there wasn't enough of a plot to wrap your arms around, and I still wouldn't say that I liked the film, but it did get more engaging as the story went along.  It was more of a character study with situations than an overriding movie with a plot, but I started to understand at least what the filmmakers were intending, which was to show the despair associated with these street families. The story is very intentionally set under the looming eye of one of the richest, most decadent experiences available in the country - Disney World (one character in the film loses his passes for his family of 4, which cost $1700).  The disparity of experience in this one town are jarring and are important to consider, sadly, this film just didn't speak to me.

Ferdinand - 1 nomination

Animated Feature, Carlos Saldanha and Lori Forte

Remember the childhood book of Ferdinand the bull who refuses to fight?  This is that book, but animated as a feature film.  I was not expecting to like it.  But it is the most adorable film.  

Ferdinand is sweet and gentle by nature and is more interested in flower tending than fighting others.  After Ferdinand's father goes to the bullring in Spain and doesn't return, Ferdinand becomes more ardent that he will not fight.  To his good fortune, he is adopted by a family with a farm where he is free to play with other animals and enjoy the flower beds.  One day, his owner and her father go to the flower show, and they leave him behind because he has gotten so big, much too big for people to feel comfortable around him.  Ferdinand disobeys and goes to the show, as well, and ends up scaring the townspeople and destroying a china shop.  Turns out the expression is true - bulls don't do well in china shops.  Animal control captures him and he is returned to the place of his childhood - the place where they raise bulls for the bullfights (or if not the bull fights, for the slaughter houses).  Ferdinand figures out that the system is rigged against the bull, no matter how big, how strong, how hard they fight, and with this new information, is determined to save his peers in the pen, even those who oppose him.

What a beautiful little animated feature, kudos to the film's producers.

The Greatest Showman - 1 nomination

Original Song, "This is Me," Music and Lyric by Benj Pasek and Justin Paul

The Greatest Showman is likely the very loosely based story of P.T. Barnum, his vision, and the development of his circus.  The originator of the phrase, "a sucker is born every minute," this must be the highly polished version of Barnum's life and success.  Full disclosure, other than this quote, and the legend that Barnum posted, "this way to the great egress" as a way of keeping people from lingering too long in his exhibits (most people didn't know that egress is a synonym for exit, and so they would go through the curtains expecting another exhibit, and what they found was that they had left the tent, and if they wanted to come back, they had to buy another ticket), I know very little about the actual PT Barnum.  But I really WANT this to be his story.

You know who is actually the greatest showman?  Hugh Jackman, that's who.  I loved every second of this film, filled with all big song and dance numbers (shame on you Original Score category), lots of amazing choreography, fantastic costumes (shame on you Costume Design category), big gorgeous sets (shame on you Production Design category), and a fantastic cast who brings this story to life.

I loved it, loved it, loved it.  I would have stayed and watched it again right after the first showing.  After the song, "This is Me," I turned to my husband and said, "that's the winner" before I even knew what else would be nominated.  I hope this song wins.  This movie deserves ever so much more love from the Academy.  Sad that it didn't get the attention it  earned.

"This is Me" is the anthem of our times.  I almost don't know what to say about it, because it is uplifting, it is the power song we need right now.  We will not be judged.  We will not stand down.  We will be who we are, and we will be proud.  "For we are glorious."  You bet we are, Benj and Justin, you bet we are.

I have never done this before, but I love this song so much, I'm sharing the lyrics to the full, powerful song on this blog post.  Enjoy.

I am not a stranger to the dark
Hide away, they say
'Cause we don't want your broken parts
I've learned to be ashamed of all my scars
Run away, they say
No one'll love you as you are

But I won't let them break me down to dust
I know that there's a place for us
For we are glorious

When the sharpest words wanna cut me down
I'm gonna send a flood, gonna drown them out
I am brave, I am bruised
I am who I'm meant to be, this is me
Look out 'cause here I come
And I'm marching on to the beat I drum
I'm not scared to be seen
I make no apologies, this is me

Oh-oh-oh-oh
Oh-oh-oh-oh
Oh-oh-oh-oh
Oh-oh-oh-oh
Oh-oh-oh, oh-oh-oh, oh-oh-oh, oh, oh

Another round of bullets hits my skin
Well, fire away 'cause today, I won't let the shame sink in
We are bursting through the barricades and
Reaching for the sun (we are warriors)
Yeah, that's what we've become (yeah, that's what we've become)

I won't let them break me down to dust
I know that there's a place for us

For we are glorious

When the sharpest words wanna cut me down
I'm gonna send a flood, gonna drown them out
I am brave, I am bruised
I am who I'm meant to be, this is me
Look out 'cause here I come
And I'm marching on to the beat I drum
I'm not scared to be seen

I make no apologies, this is me

Oh-oh-oh-oh
Oh-oh-oh-oh
Oh-oh-oh-oh
Oh-oh-oh-oh
Oh-oh-oh, oh-oh-oh, oh-oh-oh, oh, oh
This is me

and I know that I deserve your love
(Oh-oh-oh-oh) 'cause there's nothing I'm not worthy of
(Oh-oh-oh, oh-oh-oh, oh-oh-oh, oh, oh)
When the sharpest words wanna cut me down
I'm gonna send a flood, gonna drown them out
This is brave, this is proof
This is who I'm meant to be, this is me

Look out 'cause here I come (look out 'cause here I come)
And I'm marching on to the beat I drum (marching on, marching, marching on)
I'm not scared to be seen 

I make no apologies, this is me

When the sharpest words wanna cut me down
I'm gonna send a flood, gonna drown them out
I'm gonna send a flood
Gonna drown them out
Oh
This is me