Who Should Win? Who Will Win?

Well, my least favorite post of the year has arrived, and this year it's worse than ever.  The awards season has been so all over the place that making accurate predictions is probably the toughest it has ever been.  And don't forget my rule, if you use my predictions and you win you Oscars pool, I get 10% (or at least a shout out on social media.)  So, here are my final thoughts, and happy Oscars!

Best Picture:
Should Win: BlackKklansman - this was the most compelling of all the films, and based on a true story makes it even more interesting.  Unlike Green Book, the real people support the film.
Will Win: Green Book? That's right, folks, I've been wrong before on this category but this time I truly have no idea.  Roma is in the lead with GoldDerby.com, the #1 predicting service online, and I know that the people who loved this film really loved it, but there are also plenty of people like me who thought it was one of the most boring movies ever.

Director:
Should Win: Spike Lee, for his body of work (which often happens with the Academy) but also for creating his best film ever.
Will Win: Alfonso Cuaron - 10 nominations for a single film is a pretty big sign that the Academy liked his work.

Actress:
Should Win: Glenn Close
Will Win: Glenn Close, let's not forget that she is also the most nominated actor ever not to have won an Oscar, AND that she was magnificent in The Wife.

Actor:
Should Win: Christian Bale, he became Dick Cheney.  That was crazy.
Will Win: Rami Malek, he has been winning a lot of the awards along the way including the SAG award which is the greatest predictor (usually) of the Oscar.  I would not be unhappy with this choice, I was just slightly more impressed with Christian Bale. (and I do mean slightly)

Supporting Actress:
Should Win: Regina King
Will Win: Regina King, truly, there is no one else who I think comes even close on this one.

Supporting Actor:
Should Win: Richard E. Grant
Will Win: Mahershala Ali, butalsomaybe Richard E. Grant.  I know that Mahershala won the SAG award (and PS, I think he should have been nominated for Lead Actor, that was NOT a supporting role), but there is something so magical about a lifelong, talented working actor being nominated for the first time.  Sometimes Academy voters like to reward that.

Adapted Screenplay:
Should Win: BlackKklansman
Will Win: BlackKklansman, I refer to the screenplay awards as the "should have gotten the Oscar but won't" awards.  It is very rare that the screenplay winner is the Best Picture winner.  I know, that's crazy, but look it up!

Original Screenplay:
Should Win: Vice, I thought it was hilarious and quirky and totally original.
Will Win: The Favourite, again, this film had 10 nominations.  It won't win a lot, but it was also so original and again, will be a big nominee without winning Best Picture.

Cinematography:
Should Win: Never Look Away
Will Win: Roma
Just a note on this category, two of the five films were shot in black and white.  Interesting resurgence of this beautiful look.

Costume Design:
Should Win: The Favourite, with honorable mention to Black Panther
Will Win: The Favourite, period pieces are almost exclusively the winner of this category (though one of my favorites of all time was Priscilla, Queen of the Desert and the winner of the category came to accept her award in a dress made of credit cards!)

Film Editing:
Should Win: Vice, by a miracle mile
Will Win: Vice

Makeup and Hairstyling:
Should Win: Mary Queen of Scots
Will Win: Mary Queen of Scots, from the opening shot of the film, you knew you were in for something really special.  The number of impressive and unique hairstyles alone will carry the makeup artists to the award.

Production Design:
Should Win: Tie for The Favourite and Mary Poppins Returns
Will Win: The Favourite, again, those period pieces really dominate this category's winners.

Original Score:
Should Win: First Man (not nominated), or Mary Poppins Returns, beyond compare
Will Win: Black Panther is going to shock the experts and come out on top.  (GoldDerby.com predicts If Beale Street Could Talk)

Original Song:
Should Win: Shallow from A Star is Born with a very close runner up of I'll Fight from RBG
Will Win: Shallow, go get your Oscar Gaga!  And here's the thing, Gaga has a great chance of the EGOT someday.
Emmy - she did amazing work on American Horror Story (and won the Golden Globe), which means more TV in her future
Grammy - check
Oscars - will win for Shallow, but SHOULD HAVE won for "Til It Happens to You" from The Hunting Ground
Tony - Who says she won't write a musical someday? 
I'm on EGOT watch for LG.

Sound Editing:
Should Win: First Man (being predicted by GoldDerby.com)
Will Win: A Quiet Place, don't forget this film won its guild award which is helpful (not a predictor, because of the number of cross over voters in this category)

Sound Mixing:
Should Win: Black Panther
Will Win: Bohemian Rhapsody, lip syncing is apparently the toughest to achieve and also, that movie is EVERYTHING.

Visual Effects:
Should Win: Ready Player One, I am not kidding, they created an entire universe!
Will Win: Avengers: Infinity War, all the experts say so (I do not consider myself an expert, PS, this is based on research)

Animated Feature:
Should Win: Spider-Man: Into the Spider-Verse
Will Win: Spider-Man: Into the Spider-Verse

Documentary Feature:
Should Win: RBG for the awesome kick ass nature of the subject, and Of Fathers and Sons for the achievement of somehow embedding with an ISIS family without getting murdered
Will Win: Free Solo, based on the year that The Walk won, we seem to like films about idiots doing something incredibly dangerous and living.

Foreign Language Film:
Should Win: Never Look Away or even Capernaum
Will Win: Roma, ridiculous.

Animated Short:
Should Win: One Small Step (girl power!)
Will Win: Bao, which I also loved

Documentary Short:
Should Win: A Night at the Garden or Period. End of Sentence
Will Win: Period. End of Sentence

Live Action Short:
Should Win: Skin
Will Win: Skin, all the experts are calling it for Marguerite because it was the only one that wasn't depressing, but Skin is timely and relevant, and I think it could squeak it out.

And, just for funsies, a friend of a friend wrote this adorable poem which he has given me permission to share.

Twas the night before the
Oscars, and all through LA
Red carpets rolled out for
Hollywood's big day.

The statues were nestled
backstage in a case,
in hopes they would meeta
celebrity's face.

And my friend with their
comments, and I with my own,
Turned to Twitter to our
opinions be known.

Then all of a sudden, there arose
such a noise,
The Academy called forth all
the girls and the boys.

"Now Rami! Now Glenn! Now
Bradley and Emma!
On Gaga! On Spike! On Viggo
and Roma!"

"To the front of the stage! To
the Governer's Ball!
Now hashtag! Hashtag!
Hashtag it all!"

- Hiko Mitsuzuka