Who Should Win? Who Will Win?

The day has arrived! Thank you so much for those of you who have been following my reviews of all 53 nominated films. There were some great ones this year. You can expect Oppenheimer to have a big night tonight, and here we go!

Best Picture
Should Win: Poor Things

Will Win: Oppenheimer

It's won basically everything along the way, and you can count on Oppenheimer tonight.

Director

Should Win: Yorgos Lanthimos, Poor Things

Will Win: Christopher Nolan, Oppenheimer

Lead Actress

Should Win: Lily Gladstone, Killers of the Flower Moon and Emma Stone, Poor Things

Will Win: Lily Gladstone, Killers of the Flower Moon

Poor Things marks the best and most interesting performance in Emma Stone's career. But Lily Gladstone's win would be historic and she was incredible in that film. She won the SAG, I'm going with Gladstone for the win.

Supporting Actress

Should Win: Danielle Brooks, The Color Purple

Will Win: Da'Vine Joy Randolph, The Holdovers

Randolph has won everything, and she'll win again tonight.

Lead Actor

Should Win: Jeffrey Wright, American Fiction

Will Win: Cillian Murphy, Oppenheimer

Supporting Actor

Should Win: Sterling K Brown, American Fiction

Will Win: Robert Downey Jr, Oppenheimer

Adapted Screenplay

Should Win: American Fiction

Will Win: American Fiction

Can you tell that I loved this movie? The Screenplay award is often the consolation prize for a great movie that isn't going to win Best Picture.

Original Screenplay

Should Win: Past Lives

Will Win: Anatomy of a Fall

Cinematography

Should Win: Oppenheimer

Will Win: Oppenheimer

Costume Design

Should Win: Poor Things

Will Win: Poor Things (although the experts are divided between Poor Things and Barbie)

I'm going with Poor Things. The costumes were not just based on other outfits, there were truly original.

Film Editing

Should Win: Oppenheimer

Will Win: Oppenheimer

Makeup and Hairstyling

Should Win: Poor Things

Will Win: Maestro

Production Design

Should Win: Poor Things

Will Win: Poor Things

Original Score

Should Win: Killers of the Flower Moon

Will Win: Oppenheimer

Original Song

Should Win: It Never Went Away, American Symphony

Will Win: What Was I Made For, Barbie

Sound

Should Win: Oppenheimer

Will Win: Oppenheimer

Visual Effects

Should Win: Godzilla Minus One

Will Win: Godzilla Minus One

Animated Feature

Should Win: Spider Man: Across the Spider Verse (or my sweet Robot Dreams)

Will Win: Spider Man: Across the Spider Verse

The animation added to the great story makes this a shoe in. Having said that, The Boy and the Heron had a lot of attention this year, and could be a sleeper win.

Documentary

Should Win: 20 Days in Mariupol

Will Win: 20 Days in Mariupol

I really really hope so. Though I was overwhelmed by To Kill a Tiger (and actually, all of these docs were outstanding, please see them!), the bravery to even do this film was overwhelming.

International Feature

Should Win: The Zone of Interest

Will Win: The Zone of Interest

The absolutely haunting nature of this film should have it getting so much more attention than it has gotten.

Animated Short

Should Win: Letter to a Pig 

Will Win: War is Over

I often say never ever to bet against Holocaust themed films, but at this time between the war in Ukraine and Israel will appeal to Academy voters.

Documentary Short

Should Win: The Last Repair Shop

Will Win: The Last Repair Shop

Though there is some buzz also for The ABC's of Book Banning, AND Sheila Nevins, the patron saint of documentaries was an Executive Producer.

Live Action Short

Should Win: Red White and Blue

Will Win: The Wonderful Story of Henry Sugar

Don't forget, if I do well enough for you to win your Oscars pool, I get 10%!

Who Should Win? Who Will Win?

 

Just a couple of hours until showtime!  And here are my "predictions" in this crazy year.  Recently on the @2MovieJews podcast you can hear me say, "we are right in our opinions if not in our predictions," and in a year like this, I think you can expect some real upsets.

Best Picture:

Should Win: Sound of Metal

Will Win: Nomadland

As you may have read in my reviews of both films, I adored both of these films.  I couldn't stop thinking about Nomadland for days and I agree that is the best film of the year.  But Sound of Metal was so different, so captivating, I would love to see it this kind of totally unexpected recognition.

Best Director:

Should Win: Chloe Zhao, Nomadland

Will Win: Chloe Zhao, Nomadland

This film had a clear vision, unbelievable execution, and was gorgeous to watch in every moment.  I promise this is the last time this Oscars season that I will say this, but I would really have loved to see Regina King be nominated and win this category.

Actress in a Leading Role:

Should Win: Andra Day, The United States vs Billie Holiday

Will Win: Who the hell knows, but if the SAG award history is true to its past, Viola Davis.

I'm not kidding, this could be another 1969 tie for lead actress.  Every actress in the list except Vanessa Kirby has won one of the indicator awards (Golden Globes, SAG, Independent Spirit, etc.). But I'm cheering specifically for Andra Day who did what great actresses in the past have done, that is, completely embody the real life person being portrayed (Sissy Spacek, Coal Miner's Daughter, Renee Zellweger, and others ) and also looking right into the camera and crushing your soul by singing the song (Jennifer Hudson, Dreamgirls, Anne Hathaway, Les Miserables, and others.). If Oscars history is right, Andra Day takes the gold.  If SAG history is right, Viola Davis takes the gold.  And you can NEVER count out the lead actress from the likely Best Picture winner, so yeah, maybe Frances McDormand takes the gold.

Actor in a Leading Role:

Should Win: Riz Ahmed, Sound of Metal

Will Win (and I'll be happy about it too): Chadwick Boseman, Ma Rainey's Black Bottom

Oof, this is literally Chadwick Boseman's last opportunity posthumously, but Riz Ahmed just killed it.  He learned sign language, for goodness sakes.  But Riz will live to win again, and I think Chadwick Boseman will win.

Actress in a Supporting Role:

Should Win: Glenn Close, Hillbilly Elegy

Will Win: Yuh-Jung Youn, Minari

I'm sorry, I'm just a sucker for Glenn Close and it's a crime that with 8 nominations, she's never won.  But then again, I'm also a sucker for a lifelong actress winning in her advanced age with just a little time left to win.  And Yuh-Jung Youn's portrayal of the sassy grandma in Minari was worthy of recognition.

Actor in a Supporting Role:

Should Win: Daniel Kaluuya, Judas and the Black Messiah

Will Win: Daniel Kaluuya, Judas and the Black Messiah

In addition to this singular performance, I'd love to see Leslie Odom, Jr. win for One Night in Miami.    But Daniel's performance is so heightened and so impactful, I don't see how he doesn't win.

Adapted Screenplay:

Should Win: The Father

Will Win: The experts say The Father

Here's the thing about screenplay categories.  They almost never award the screenplay to the Best Picture winner.  I've said that it's kind of the consolation prize.  While I also think that Borat is a totally different kind of achievement, this is the first Alzheimers film ever to show us what dementia is like inside the person who is experiencing it.  The total confusion that we feel watching the film while still developing an understanding of what is going on is what I think makes the screenplay a standout.

Original Screenplay:

Should Win: The Trial of the Chicago 7

Will Win: The experts say Promising Young Woman

Hard to say what is going to pan out here because the experts have amazing track records, but I just really love me some Aaron Sorkin.  For safety, I'd stick with Promising Young Woman.

Cinematography:

Should Win: Nomadland

Will Win: Nomadland

I just want you to think about the level of difficulty producing a film that is constantly outside in the elements and inside of a van with crazy lighting.  The exquisite cinematography was practically another lead actor in the film.

Costume Design:

Should Win: Ma Rainey's Black Bottom

Will Win: Ma Rainey's Black Bottom

Seriously, do a little googling of the actual Ma Rainey - these costumes took her style and then somehow made the costumes more authentic than the originals.  Plus you know what I always say about costumes and period pieces... and I'm giving it to Ma Rainey over Emma because of the sparkle factor.

Film Editing:

Should Win: Sound of Metal or The Trial of the Chicago 7

Will Win: Conventional wisdom would say The Trial of the Chicago 7

But, the non-linear telling of a story tends to get more attention from the Academy giving The Trial of the Chicago 7 a slight edge.

Makeup and Hairstyling:

Should Win: Pinocchio

Will Win: Ma Rainey's Black Bottom

Ok ok, I know you're reading this and thinking, "was Pinocchio even a movie this year?"  It was, and no kidding the makeup and hairstyling were a knockout, especially Pinocchio who did look wooden.  But when you take a gorgeous woman like Viola Davis and make her look like she looked in Ma Rainey, with a much more high profile film, it's unlikely that Ma Rainey (with also superb hairstyling, truly) will lose.  PS much like happened in the sound category combining this year, it is often true that the makeup artist carries the hairstyler on his or her back, or visa versa.  With Ma Rainey, you really get both.

Production Design:

Should Win: Mank

Will Win: Mank

The other film that does really deserve recognition for Production Design is Emma, which wasn't nominated at all in this category.  Mank captures the Hollywood of old so perfectly including the Citizen Kane inspired decadence of William Randolph Hearst - I think the oversized nature of the production design will win.

Original Score:

Should Win: Da 5 Bloods

Will Win: Soul

Literally all of the experts I research agree that Soul is the clear winner.  But I do want to pay homage to Da 5 Bloods and its incredible score.

Original Song:

Should Win: Speak Now, One Night in Miami

Will Win: Speak Now, One Night in Miami

Experts are really mixed on this one, with second place going to Husavik from Eurovision Song Contest.  Now, the Academy has a serious past of getting this one completely wrong.  (Diane Warren should have won for Til It Happens to You.). And this category is one that has a history of completely random surprises (It's Tough Out Here for A Pimp from Hustle and Flow comes to mind.). But damn it, Speak Now is saying something so important.  

Best Sound:

Should Win: Sound of Metal

Will Win: SOUND OF METAL

I meant it people.  Want to know what it's like to experience the world as a person who is going deaf?  Watch the film. (Want to know how they did it?  Here's a short doc which explains it.)

Visual Effects:

Should Win: Tenet

Will Win: Tenet

I may not have any idea what the movie was about, but the visual effects were cool.

Animated Feature:

Should Win: Over the Moon

Will Win: Soul

Ok, I know Pixar is going to be the winner and the film was good, but Over the Moon was a full, brilliant, animated musical.  The animation was bright and colorful and magnificent.  Promise me you will watch this film!

Documentary:

Should Win: Time

Will Win: My Octopus Teacher or maybe Crip Camp

Literally 1 expert has picked Time, but I'm telling you now, there is no documentary feat greater than following a story for 20 with unpredictable outcomes.  This movie was a magic trick.  The other two are about split among experts and great prognosticators and my take is that My Octopus Teacher was more stunning and Crip Camp was more satisfying.  (But could I please impose upon you to see The Mole Agent?  It was my sentimental favorite of the 5.)

International Film:

Should Win:  All 5, with Quo Vadis, Aida? being the most important.

Will Win: Another Round

Yes, go back and read the blog post.  I loved Another Round.  But I was blown away by Quo Vadis.  I'd like to boost some attention for Better Days from Hong Kong about bullying.  Please make sure to see it.

Animated Short:

Should Win: If Anything Happens, I Love You

Will Win: If Anything Happens, I Love You

The aftermath of gun violence is portrayed so heartbreakingly.

Documentary Short:

Should Win: A Concerto is a Conversation

Will Win: A Concerto is a Conversation, with maybe maybe A Love Song for Latasha

Sometimes the Academy surprises us and while Concerto is slightly lighter than the others (in a field of very heavy short films), there is something important about Concerto (which you can see in its entirety on YouTube).

Live Action Short:

Should Win: Feeling Through (I sobbed)

Will Win: Two Distant Strangers 

If any film properly honors the best learning for the naive about Black Lives Matter, Two Distant Strangers does. It is beyond timely.  It is beyond important.  But I sobbed watching Feeling Through, so it is my sentimental favorite.

With still a couple of hours until the broadcast, here is the podcast episode we did on the Oscars this year, just a quick 30 minutes to orient you to what you are going to be watching tonight, with no prerequisite of having seeing any of the films. I  recommend you subscribe as we have some incredible episode themes coming up, including movies we love that everybody hates.  See if you disagree!

Who Should Win? Who Will Win?

Today is the big day!  Do I say that every year?  Well, I'm excited to see what happens tonight.  There are several categories that I believe are absolutely locked.  You'll see those below!

Best Picture:
Should Win: Little Women
Honestly, I loved the majority of the top 9 this year, but this one was the most original adapted screenplay, and you know what?  That's not easy for a book that was published in 1868 and has had nine movie adaptations.
Will Win: 1917
I think the compelling story combined with the incredible artistry of the filmmaking will eke it out over the much hyped possible win for Parasite.  It is not often that Best Pictures have no acting nominations, but this will be one of those years.

Lead Actor:
Should Win: Joaquin Phoenix
Will Win: Joaquin Phoenix (Joker)

Lead Actress:
Should Win: Renee Zellweger, with honorable mention to Cynthia Erivo (Harriet)
Will Win: Renee Zellweger (Judy)

Supporting Actor:
Should Win: Joe Pesci (The Irishman)
I loved this performance and he was the best thing about the movie.
Will Win: Brad Pitt (Once Upon a Time in Hollywood)

Supporting Actress:
Should Win: Laura Dern
Will Win: Laura Dern (Marriage Story)

Director:
Should Win: Sam Mendes
Will Win: Sam Mendes
I do think he is going to pull it out, but look for an upset with Bong Joon Ho.  It's also notable when the "split" happens between Best Picture and Director winners.  But when you make a movie like 1917, I think you get the award.

Animated Feature:
Should Win: Klaus (winner of the Hidden Gem award this year!)
Will Win: Klaus
Ok, I"m going out on a limb with this one.  Toy Story 4 has about equal attention from all of the best Oscars predictors with Klaus.  And I think Toy Story 4 is the safest choice, but I'm just going to go all in on Klaus which was truly one of my favorite of all the nominated films.  You never know, winners surprise us all the time.

Animated Short:
Should Win: Hair Love
Will Win: Hair Love

Adapted Screenplay:
Should Win: Jojo Rabbit
Will Win: Jojo Rabbit
With a very close second for Little Women.  I think little Jojo is going to take the award.

Original Screenplay:
Should Win: Knives Out
Will Win: Parasite
This award often goes to the movie that could have been the Best Picture award winner but just didn't quite make it.  I think Oscars voters split their votes and give one to Best Picture and one to Screenplay as a way of saying, "we liked you both."

Cinematography:
Should Win: 1917
Will Win: 1917
I mean, how did they do that????

Documentary Feature:
Should Win: The Cave
Will Win: American Factory
American Factory is on Netflix and I highly recommend you watch it.  It's very helpful to understanding the global economy.

Documentary Short:
Should Win: Learning to Skateboard in a Warzone (if you're a girl)
Will Win: Learning to Skateboard in a Warzone (if you're a girl)
With very special honorable mention to In the Absence.  Actually, I really enjoyed every documentary short and I highly recommend you watch them.  Life Overtakes Me is on Netflix and it is imperative that you watch this.

Live Action Short:
Should Win: Nefta Football Club (it would be nice to have one with some comedy in it)
Will Win: The Neighbor's Window
And by the way, this live action short is both funny and emotional.

International Feature:
Should Win: Parasite
Will Win: Parasite

Film Editing:
Should Win: Ford v Ferrari
Will Win: Parasite

Sound Editing:
Should Win: 1917
Will Win: 1917
So many technical achievements with 1917, and I think it will pick up some wins here.

Sound Mixing:
Should Win: 1917
Will Win: 1917

Production Design:
Should Win: Jojo Rabbit
Will Win: Once Upon a Time... in Hollywood

Original Score:
Should Win: Marriage Story
Will Win: Joker
And actually, if you have a chance to listen to the Fresh Air interview with Todd Phillips, it's a great story of the musical score.

Original Song:
Should Win: Stand Up, Harriet
Will Win: I'm Gonna Love me Again, Rocketman
Look, it was a great song from a really good movie.  But I like songs with a strong message.  And I'm still mad Lady Gaga didn't win for "Til It Happens to You," from The Hunting Ground.

Makeup and Hairstyling:
Should Win: Bombshell
Will Win: Bombshell
Guys, she looked EXACTLY like Megyn Kelly.

Costume Design:
Should Win: Once Upon a Time... in Hollywood
Will Win: Little Women
The Academy LOVES period pieces.  The further back the time period, the more likely the Oscars win.  Go through the winners and nominees from prior years and tell me I'm wrong. Elizabethan almost always has the best chance.  1868 is the farthest back on this list, so I'm pretty sure it will win.  (PS The Irishman was a movie almost totally costumed in men's suits.  How does it get on this list???)

Visual Effects:
Should Win: Avengers: End Game
Will Win: 1917
This is a hard category to predict but I've scoured the internet full of predictions and most people think that 1917 is going to take the category.  But this one is usually given purely to the one that has the best effects, and so this one could be a surprise!

Ok babies, get on your high heels, tuxedoes, and sparkly dresses.  Tonight's the night!

Who Should Win? Who Will Win?

Well, my least favorite post of the year has arrived, and this year it's worse than ever.  The awards season has been so all over the place that making accurate predictions is probably the toughest it has ever been.  And don't forget my rule, if you use my predictions and you win you Oscars pool, I get 10% (or at least a shout out on social media.)  So, here are my final thoughts, and happy Oscars!

Best Picture:
Should Win: BlackKklansman - this was the most compelling of all the films, and based on a true story makes it even more interesting.  Unlike Green Book, the real people support the film.
Will Win: Green Book? That's right, folks, I've been wrong before on this category but this time I truly have no idea.  Roma is in the lead with GoldDerby.com, the #1 predicting service online, and I know that the people who loved this film really loved it, but there are also plenty of people like me who thought it was one of the most boring movies ever.

Director:
Should Win: Spike Lee, for his body of work (which often happens with the Academy) but also for creating his best film ever.
Will Win: Alfonso Cuaron - 10 nominations for a single film is a pretty big sign that the Academy liked his work.

Actress:
Should Win: Glenn Close
Will Win: Glenn Close, let's not forget that she is also the most nominated actor ever not to have won an Oscar, AND that she was magnificent in The Wife.

Actor:
Should Win: Christian Bale, he became Dick Cheney.  That was crazy.
Will Win: Rami Malek, he has been winning a lot of the awards along the way including the SAG award which is the greatest predictor (usually) of the Oscar.  I would not be unhappy with this choice, I was just slightly more impressed with Christian Bale. (and I do mean slightly)

Supporting Actress:
Should Win: Regina King
Will Win: Regina King, truly, there is no one else who I think comes even close on this one.

Supporting Actor:
Should Win: Richard E. Grant
Will Win: Mahershala Ali, butalsomaybe Richard E. Grant.  I know that Mahershala won the SAG award (and PS, I think he should have been nominated for Lead Actor, that was NOT a supporting role), but there is something so magical about a lifelong, talented working actor being nominated for the first time.  Sometimes Academy voters like to reward that.

Adapted Screenplay:
Should Win: BlackKklansman
Will Win: BlackKklansman, I refer to the screenplay awards as the "should have gotten the Oscar but won't" awards.  It is very rare that the screenplay winner is the Best Picture winner.  I know, that's crazy, but look it up!

Original Screenplay:
Should Win: Vice, I thought it was hilarious and quirky and totally original.
Will Win: The Favourite, again, this film had 10 nominations.  It won't win a lot, but it was also so original and again, will be a big nominee without winning Best Picture.

Cinematography:
Should Win: Never Look Away
Will Win: Roma
Just a note on this category, two of the five films were shot in black and white.  Interesting resurgence of this beautiful look.

Costume Design:
Should Win: The Favourite, with honorable mention to Black Panther
Will Win: The Favourite, period pieces are almost exclusively the winner of this category (though one of my favorites of all time was Priscilla, Queen of the Desert and the winner of the category came to accept her award in a dress made of credit cards!)

Film Editing:
Should Win: Vice, by a miracle mile
Will Win: Vice

Makeup and Hairstyling:
Should Win: Mary Queen of Scots
Will Win: Mary Queen of Scots, from the opening shot of the film, you knew you were in for something really special.  The number of impressive and unique hairstyles alone will carry the makeup artists to the award.

Production Design:
Should Win: Tie for The Favourite and Mary Poppins Returns
Will Win: The Favourite, again, those period pieces really dominate this category's winners.

Original Score:
Should Win: First Man (not nominated), or Mary Poppins Returns, beyond compare
Will Win: Black Panther is going to shock the experts and come out on top.  (GoldDerby.com predicts If Beale Street Could Talk)

Original Song:
Should Win: Shallow from A Star is Born with a very close runner up of I'll Fight from RBG
Will Win: Shallow, go get your Oscar Gaga!  And here's the thing, Gaga has a great chance of the EGOT someday.
Emmy - she did amazing work on American Horror Story (and won the Golden Globe), which means more TV in her future
Grammy - check
Oscars - will win for Shallow, but SHOULD HAVE won for "Til It Happens to You" from The Hunting Ground
Tony - Who says she won't write a musical someday? 
I'm on EGOT watch for LG.

Sound Editing:
Should Win: First Man (being predicted by GoldDerby.com)
Will Win: A Quiet Place, don't forget this film won its guild award which is helpful (not a predictor, because of the number of cross over voters in this category)

Sound Mixing:
Should Win: Black Panther
Will Win: Bohemian Rhapsody, lip syncing is apparently the toughest to achieve and also, that movie is EVERYTHING.

Visual Effects:
Should Win: Ready Player One, I am not kidding, they created an entire universe!
Will Win: Avengers: Infinity War, all the experts say so (I do not consider myself an expert, PS, this is based on research)

Animated Feature:
Should Win: Spider-Man: Into the Spider-Verse
Will Win: Spider-Man: Into the Spider-Verse

Documentary Feature:
Should Win: RBG for the awesome kick ass nature of the subject, and Of Fathers and Sons for the achievement of somehow embedding with an ISIS family without getting murdered
Will Win: Free Solo, based on the year that The Walk won, we seem to like films about idiots doing something incredibly dangerous and living.

Foreign Language Film:
Should Win: Never Look Away or even Capernaum
Will Win: Roma, ridiculous.

Animated Short:
Should Win: One Small Step (girl power!)
Will Win: Bao, which I also loved

Documentary Short:
Should Win: A Night at the Garden or Period. End of Sentence
Will Win: Period. End of Sentence

Live Action Short:
Should Win: Skin
Will Win: Skin, all the experts are calling it for Marguerite because it was the only one that wasn't depressing, but Skin is timely and relevant, and I think it could squeak it out.

And, just for funsies, a friend of a friend wrote this adorable poem which he has given me permission to share.

Twas the night before the
Oscars, and all through LA
Red carpets rolled out for
Hollywood's big day.

The statues were nestled
backstage in a case,
in hopes they would meeta
celebrity's face.

And my friend with their
comments, and I with my own,
Turned to Twitter to our
opinions be known.

Then all of a sudden, there arose
such a noise,
The Academy called forth all
the girls and the boys.

"Now Rami! Now Glenn! Now
Bradley and Emma!
On Gaga! On Spike! On Viggo
and Roma!"

"To the front of the stage! To
the Governer's Ball!
Now hashtag! Hashtag!
Hashtag it all!"

- Hiko Mitsuzuka

Who Should Win? Who Will Win?

Followers of the blog will know that this is my most stressful post of the year!  I've done a lot of research into what the Oscars "experts" think will win, and then I try to add in my own opinion, as well.  If you win big, send me 5%! (haha)  Actually, if you win big, please help me next year by sharing some of the blog posts and help me turn others onto this lovable hobby of mine.  Without further ado...

Best Picture
Should Win: Hidden Figures
What a beautiful and important film with a story that I'm certain many of us didn't know.  Last week, I felt confident that this would win, much like last year when the conventional wisdom was that The Revenant would win and I still (correctly) called Spotlight.
Will Win: La La Land
To be clear (and if you read my review), I LOVED La La Land.  I'm a musicals groupie and seeing some of the old Hollywood musical brought back to life felt like slipping on a warm bathrobe.  Many have argued that this film is being voted on by people in La La Land who have made it despite their early struggles reflected in the film, and so conventional wisdom suggests that it will win.  I still have a 10% chance hope that Hidden Figures takes the prize.

Actor in a Leading Role
Should Win: Viggo Mortensen, Captain Fantastic
The role in Captain Fantastic was so well done and unique, and if you read my post, this was an incredible film.  This was Viggo's top performance in his career.
Will Win: Denzel Washington, Fences
Ok guys, this is a tough one.  Casey Affleck has had the momentum and has been the presumptive winner for the entire awards season.  He's captured a large majority of the awards given out so far. But the SAG awards are the most predictive for acting awards - in the last two years, all four of the winners at SAG were the winners at the Oscars.  It doesn't happen every time in every category, but when Washington won at SAG, it completely changed my prediction.  Having said that, Affleck might still be the safer bet, so choose carefully!

Actor in a Supporting Role
Should Win: Mahershala Ali, Moonlight
Will Win: Mahershala Ali, Moonlight
Like Dame Judy Dench before him, time on screen is not a good predictor of who should or will win. His performance was so powerful, and he's won almost everything in this category along the way.

Actress in a Leading Role
Should Win: Emma Stone, La La Land
Although that Isabelle Huppert was amazing in Elle.
Will Win: Emma Stone, La La Land

Actress in a Supporting Role
Should Win: Viola Davis, Fences
Will Win: VIOLA DAVIS
CAN I GET AN AMEN! Nobody even comes close this year.

Animated Feature Film
Should Win: My Life as a Zucchini or Zootopia
Will Win: Zootopia
In addition to cleaning up in most of the awards shows, this film is the most relevant to what we are seeing today.  The government telling you something doesn't mean it's true and doesn't mean it shouldn't be investigated.  Sound familiar?

Cinematography
Should Win: Arrival
The work on this film was amazing.  Shooting in dark spaces with strange lighting, multiple kinds of settings, landscape and tight spaces, really great work.
Will Win: La La Land
Also wonderful work, but I thought Arrival was better.

Costume Design
Should Win: Jackie
It was a gratuitous part of the film, but that scene where Jackie tries on all of her favorite outfits was priceless.
Will Win: Well..... it's going to be La La Land or Jackie
Here's the thing, Jackie did not win it's award at the costumers awards show and La La Land did.  I still can't decide, but the odds are that the "sweeper" film will do better than not, so if you're betting, I suspect the safer bet is La La Land.  But historically, the costume awards really go to period or fantasy pieces, somehow the costume design category isn't colored by rose glasses.  But I admit I have a secret suspicion this could be one of the rare upsets.

Directing
Should Win: Damian Chazelle
Will Win: Damian Chazelle
NOW GO MAKE MORE MUSICALS, HOLLYWOOD!  Hamilton, anyone?

Documentary Feature
Should Win: 13th
Possibly the most important documentary of the year.
Will Win: OJ: Made in America
This epic 8 hour documentary is an unbelievable accomplishment (read my blog post about Documentary Features to see why), and I think people will want to honor the craft of this film as much as the story it tells.  Want to hear something interesting? This film, 13th, and I Am Not Your Negro all used the exact same piece of historical footage in their documentaries.  Watch for it.

Documentary Short Subject
Should Win: Extremis
I sobbed.  I sobbed.  I sobbed.
Will Win: The White Helmets
I know my rule is generally "never bet against the Holocaust story" (Joe's Violin), but this film is so timely, and Hollywood will relish showing good people doing heroic things in Syria, as much as a snub to this administration as anything else.  Also, I cried... a lot.

Film Editing
Should Win: La La Land
Will Win: La La Land
The freeway scene alone.

Foreign Language Film
Should Win: A Man Called Ove
Can I please beg you to see this movie?  It's available as a DVD on Netflix.
Will Win: The Salesman
It's enough that this film was very good and shows a different side of how we think about average Iranians, but the travel ban/suspension is more than enough for Hollywood to send a screw you to the President to get them to vote for this film.

Makeup and Hairstyling
Should Win: Star Trek Beyond
Will Win: Star Trek Beyond

Original Score
Should Win: La La Land
Will Win: La La Land

Original Song:
Should Win: How Far I'll Go, Moana 
Can I get a what what for my man Lin-Manuel Miranda!
Will Win: City of Stars, La La Land

Production Design
Should Win: Fantastic Beasts and Where to Find Them
I mean, every Harry Potter film SHOULD HAVE won this category.
Will Win: La La Land
For that very last montage alone.

Animated Short Film
Should Win: Piper
Will Win: Piper
I'm notoriously bad at picking this category but my other favorite was Pearl.

Live Action Short Film
Should Win: Ennemis Interieurs
This film is incredibly important and timely and is tied for my two favorites.
Will Win: Timecode
Ok, my favorite Oscars predictors have picked Ennemis Interieurs and La Femme et le TGV.  But the live action short category has a history of picking lighthearted, adorable, funny films over their more serious competitors.  You absolutely must see this film, so I'm going with Timecode.

Sound Editing
Should Win: Deepwater Horizon
Will Win: Hacksaw Ridge
Sound Editing loves war movies.  Full stop.

Sound Mixing
Should Win: Rogue One: A Star Wars Story
Will Win: La La Land
Sound Mixing loves musicals.  Full stop.

Visual Effects
Should Win: Dr. Strange
No kidding, that was the most creative, beautiful effects I've seen since Avatar.
Will Win: The Jungle Book
The entire movie was basically visual effects of animals around one live kid.  That's pretty impressive.

Adapted Screenplay
Should Win: Moonlight
My second choice would be Lion, but Moonlight is the darling of Hollywood.  There was even talk of this upsetting the Best Picture category!
Will Win: Moonlight

Original Screenplay
Should Win: I'd like to make a plug for 20th Century Women here, and also for The Lobster.
Will Win: Manchester By The Sea
The "big reveal" is so gut wrenching.  Very well told story (sorry, my friends who hated it.)

Who Should Win? Who Will Win?

We have arrived at the big day!  First, thank you to all of you who read, shared, tweeted, and social media-ed the s**t out of the blog (thank you, The Martian, for that joke).  This day is always the one that gives me the most anxiety, because I know some of you use my picks, and I desperately don't want to let you down.  Fair warning, sometimes in the moment I go with my gut and change my choice, so my results may differ from what I share in this blog.  

Best Picture:
Should Win: Spotlight
Go back and look at the list of nominees - find a story that is more important to be told.  You can't do it.  Like All the Presidents Men before it, Spotlight highlights the tremendous work of a journalist team that uncovered one of the most important issues of the day.  It deserves to win.
Will Win: The Revenant
This is a film whose charm escapes me.  Does this movie really belong in a list of films that includes the likes of great cinema like On the Waterfront, In the Heat of the Night, The Godfathers, 12 Years a Slave?  NO, it does not.  Fair warning on this prediction - more often than not the PGA winner for Best Picture is the Oscars winner too, and this year, that film was The Big Short.  So for statistical safety, you may want to choose The Big Short.  It's going to be a tight race.

Actor in a Leading Role:
Should Win: Eddie Redmayne, The Danish Girl
This man changed how his body moved, how his voice sounded, to convincingly become a woman. It is an important film to boot. This performance was beautiful and heartbreaking.  No contest.
Will Win: Leonardo DiCaprio
Unlike other years when the best performance has not been recognized, I will actually be ok with this win.  In my mind, though, I'll be filling in the words "What's Eating Gilbert Grape" when the announcers say, "Leonardo DiCaprio, The Revenant."  I have a dear friend who is still quite angry that Leo didn't win back then, and he has been excellent in other roles like the one in Blood Diamond, and a "career Oscar" is certainly deserved in this case.

Actress in a Leading Role:
Should Win: Brie Larson, Room
Will Win: Brie Larson, Room
Everything about Larson's performance in this difficult film was flawless.  She won the SAG award which is usually a strong predictor (and almost every single other award this season), and the gold will be the final addition to her mantle.

Actor in a Supporting Role:
Should Win: Mark Ruffalo, Spotlight
Again and again, Mark Ruffalo manages to walk, talk, look, and sound different with every role he plays.  I don't even remember what real Mark Ruffalo looks and sounds like, after these last few years of roles.
Will Win: Sylvester Stallone, Creed
And ok, who doesn't love the sentimental favorite?  This is a closer race too.  And this time around we can't use the SAG Awards as a predictor because the studio didn't get their nomination in to SAG in time for Sly to be eligible.  But I was so moved by this performance that I think this one is going to Stallone.

Actress in a Supporting Role:
Should Win: Jennifer Jason Leigh, The Hateful Eight
I know I'm the only one saying this, but she was really outstanding in this film, and should be getting more attention for the role.
Will Win: Alicia Vikander, The Danish Girl
This performance was indeed my second favorite of the category.  She won the SAG Award and she is seriously hot in Hollywood right now.  I saw her this year on a panel talking about this film, and she spoke so beautifully about this film and this role.

Directing:
Should Win: Three way tie between Adam McKay (The Big Short), Lenny Abrahamson (Room), Tom McCarthy (Spotlight)
So so so hard to choose.  If I were voting, this would be the category with which I would struggle most.  When all bets are even, I would go with the Director who led the movie I felt was the most important, and that is Tom McCarthy for Spotlight.
Will Win: Alejandro Inarritu, The Revenant
Interesting tidbit, Inarritu will only be the third Director in history to nab this prize two years in a row.  There is no question he is an uber talented Director.  I just don't agree with this, but it is extremely rare (4 times in history) that the winner of the DGA Award didn't win the Oscar too.

Animated Feature Film:
Should Win: Inside Out
Will Win: Inside Out
And all of the little people in my head agree to this!  Even anger, who is upset that no one asked her for her opinion.  Or maybe that's disgust.  But I digress.  My "Joy" is already happy for Inside Out.

Cinematography:
Should Win: The Revenant
Will Win: The Revenant
This is one of the only films in the category that deserves this nomination.  Inarritu knows how to do Cinematography right (see: Birdman) and he gets how movies should be filmed.

Costume Design:
Movie critic idol Steve Pond recommends sticking with Best Picture nominees when it's a close race and there is doubt.  Costume happens to be the one rare exception to this rule, and the most beautiful costumes usually win.  This category is down to three choices, Carol, Cinderella, and Mad Max:Fury Road.
Should Win: Cinderella
Will Win: Cinderella
I just can't predict against the tremendous beauty of the costumes in this film.  Given that all of the experts are divided almost evenly among the three films, I decided to take a look at all of the winners in this category in modern history.  A sci-fi film has never beaten a period piece/elaborately decorated costume film.  So even though I'm defying my idol and not going with Mad Max according to the formula, doesn't mean you should consider the error of my ways.

Documentary Feature:
Should Win: Winter on Fire or Amy
Will Win: Amy
I hope you will take the time to see this film.  Heartbreaking.

Documentary Short Subject:
Should Win: The Girl on the River: The Price of Forgiveness
This film hurt my heart.  I dearly hope that people will see it on a broader scale.  Watching a father say that he is justified in murdering his daughter because she embarrassed him by not listening to him is truly beyond the pale.
Will Win: Body Team 12
I'm not certain about whether this one will be the winner, but I can tell you that this is also a brilliant film.  Most of the critics are choosing Body Team 12 to win.  And bravo to the young heroes of this movie who bravely care for the dead in Liberia.

Film Editing:
Should Win: The Big Short
So cleverly edited.
Will Win: Mad Max: Fury Road
Quick bit of trivia, this film had the greatest number of cuts to piece together, making it an editing darling.

Foreign Language Film:
Should Win: Son of Saul (Honorable Mention to A War)
Will Win: Son of Saul
First, let's agree that when it comes to the Oscars, no one messes with the Holocaust.  Second, this film is unique in finding a new story that I don't think has been told before.  Finally, there is no question that this way of filming the lead character so closely is a new way to make the tragedy so personal.

Makeup and Hairstyling:
Should Win: Mad Max: Fury Road
Will Win: Mad Max: Fury Road
*Every year I give the "Hidden Gem" award to a film that I hadn't heard of before it was nominated for an Oscar, but which I find to be incredibly endearing.  This year, The 100 Year Old Man Who Climbed Out A Window and Disappeared, nominated for Makeup and Hairstyling, is the winner of the Hidden Gem Award.

Original Score:
Should Win: Star Wars: The Force Awakens
I'm loyal to the master of all time, John Williams.
Will Win: The Hateful Eight
I'm ok with that.  It was a beautiful score.

Original Song:
Should Win: Til It Happens to You, The Hunting Ground
Will Win: Til It Happens to You, The Hunting Ground
DO NOT get me started on why this film is not nominated for Documentary Feature.  This song is haunting and important.  Listen to it on a loop. Here is a link to a gorgeous performance of the song.  I defy you not to cry. 
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=lDkEAbOZvYM

Production Design:
Should Win: Mad Max: Fury Road (Honorable Mention to The Danish Girl)
Will Win: Mad Max: Fury Road
Even I have to give props to the design of this post-apocalyptic world.

Animated Short Film:
Should Win: Bear Story
Just the sweetest little short film.
Will Win: Sanjay's Super Team
Fair warning, Pixar doesn't usually do well in this category and I keep getting this category wrong, year after year.  Still, most of my research points to Sanjay, the adorable little boy who finds his way to tradition through modern interpretation.  If you saw The Good Dinosaur, you saw this animated short.

Live Action Short Film:
This is a very hard category to predict, but on the whole, the Live Action films are generally chosen from the lighter, more whimsical options.  There have certainly been exceptions.
Should Win: Shok
Truly, this film reminds us that genocide continues in the modern world, and that children who are not taught to hate, don't hate.
Will Win: Ave Maria
I'm not certain with this one, but it was a very funny film that allowed both Israelis and Palestinians to be their better selves.  I suspect Hollywood liberals will delight in seeing a film in which these two peoples aren't killing each other.  (Stutterer has a good chance too, difficult to call!)

Sound Editing:
Should Win: Star Wars: The Force Awakens
Will Win: Mad Max: Fury Road
This was a pretty loud and crazy movie with a huge wall of sound.  I think it's going to be between this and The Revenant.  Hard to know what to expect, and so I'm going with Steve Pond's instincts here.  He has great instincts.  Fair warning - I may change my mind on this one!

Sound Mixing:
Should Win: Star Wars: The Force Awakens
Will Win: The Revenant
About 40% of the time the Sound Editing and Sound Mixing winners are not the same film. However, in this case, I don't think you can ignore the momentum of the likely Best Picture winner.

Visual Effects:
Should Win: Star Wars: The Force Awakens
Will Win: Star Wars: The Force Awakens
Seriously Academy voters.  I'm not kidding on this one.  Don't mess with the nerds. (Speaking as a Star Wars nerd myself.)

Adapted Screenplay:
Should Win: The Big Short
Will Win: The Big Short
Sadly, I think this will be the only recognition this terrific film receives.  If you review the screenplay winners of the past, the one selected is usually NOT the Best Picture winner.  More often than not, it is the runner up for Best Picture that wins the screenplay awards in both Adapted and Original categories.  Isn't that strange?

Original Screenplay:
Should Win: Spotlight
Will Win: Spotlight

Good luck to all of you prognosticators out there!  I hope to have been helpful and apologize if I'm way off.  Still, should be a great night, and I'll be live tweeting from @JodiBee.

WHO SHOULD WIN? WHO WILL WIN?

The time has come – my most intimidating moment of the year, the moment I go on record with my predictions.  I’ve had really good years (21 out of 24 in 2014), and really bad years (15 out of 24 in 2011), and this is the first time I’ve ventured out where my idol critics have gone before me.  (Steve Pond, if you’re reading this, I had no idea how stressful this is, so thank you!)  However, in addition to the films and artists I think will win, what’s more important to me is who I think should win, now that I have seen all 60 films with nominations.  Here we go! (and don’t forget that if you win your pool with my picks, I get 10%!)

Best Picture

This is a very close race this year between Birdman and Boyhood.  The numbers have changed since last week!  So I’m going for a pick, and we’ll see…

Will Win: Birdman – in the end, I think audiences will remember that though the “gimmick” of Boyhood was interesting and compelling, the story is not necessarily an original one.  I think Academy voters may see something of themselves in Birdman and will pick it as the winner.  But I have to admit I'm not confident, and my Oscar critic idol thinks Boyhood will eke it out in the end.

Should Win: The Imitation Game – I know this film is not even a contender for the big award, and Vegas’ odds would tell you to bet against it.  But it was an important story and a critical social commentary on prioritizing moral judgments versus actual accomplishments.  It was an outstanding film.

Director

Will Win: This is another tough call and the tides have turned in only the last week.  The DGA award is always the best predictor of this winner, and so I’m going with Alejandro G. Innaritu.  Not to mention the VERY few number of times that the Director of the Best Picture has not also won.  So if you pick Boyhood, I recommend you pick Richard Linklater.

Should Win: Richard Linklater – for all my criticisms of the over-hype of a basically regular movie, the execution of the movie was based on Linklater’s singular vision and experimentation.  He deserves it.  In my heart, I hope that Linklater wins, even if it means that I'll have one less point in my pool.

Actor

Will Win: Eddie Redmayne

Should Win: Eddie Redmayne – of course there is a lot of buzz about Michael Keaton and I am among the many who was thrilled to see him in this amazing role.  But Eddie Redmayne became Stephen Hawking, and he deserves the accolades.

Actress

Will Win: Julianne Moore

Should Win: Julianne Moore with Marion Cotillard a close second.

Supporting Actor

Will Win: JK Simmons

Should Win: Channing Tatum – yes, I know he’s not nominated.  But I really thought the Academy would do for him what they did for Geena Davis in The Accidental Tourist and nominate him in the Supporting Actor category to give him a chance for having so completely transformed himself in Foxcatcher.  Without that option, yes, JK Simmons was superb and he is the clear winner among the nominated group.

Supporting Actress

Will Win: Patricia Arquette

Should Win: Patricia Arquette or Laura Dern, who was also marvelous.

Original Screenplay

Will Win: The Grand Budapest Hotel

Should Win: The Grand Budapest Hotel – it’s always funny to me that so many times, the Best Picture winners and the screenplay winners are not the same.  The implication of this award being, this was a great film that could have been the best picture, so it will be the best screenplay.  (Look it up!)

Adapted Screenplay

Will Win: The Imitation Game

Should Win: The Imitation Game – see my comments about Best Picture!  If it can’t win for Best Picture, it should at least get this award.

Cinematography

Will Win: Birdman

Should Win: Birdman, no contest.

Costume Design:

Will Win: The Grand Budapest Hotel

Should Win: The Grand Budapest Hotel – without an amazing period piece this year (Mr. Turner was a contender, but not enough to be the winner), the whimsy of this film’s costumes make it a clear standout.

Film Editing

Will Win: Boyhood

Should Win: Boyhood - the film just doesn't work without the outstanding editing.

Makeup and Hairstyling

Will Win: The Grand Budapest Hotel - but mostly because of momentum of the film, not necessarily because it was the best of the lot.  This category usually honors the truly best makeup and hair, but I have a feeling that they will go with Grand Budapest.

Should Win: The Guardians of the Galaxy – come on, the makeup turning Zoe Saldana green alone should make this the winner.  This team created aliens, not just old people out of young people.

Production Design

Will Win: The Grand Budapest Hotel

Should Win: The Grand Budapest Hotel, not just for the exquisite settings they created, but also for the shabby run down versions, as well.  The attention to detail is beyond description.

Original Score

This is a very hard category – The Grand Budapest Hotel has momentum, The Theory of Everything has a beyond beautiful score.  So…

Will Win: The Theory of Everything

Should Win: The Theory of Everything, so let’s hope I’m right about the first one!  Again, a win for Grand Budapest would be a win for the popularity of the film, not for the best Original Score.

Original Song

Will Win: “Glory” from Selma

Should Win: “Glory” from Selma, with a very close runner up in “Everything is Awesome” from The Lego Movie.  Try to get it out of your head.  You can’t.  And you’re welcome.

Sound Editing

Will Win: American Sniper – it’s very hard to beat war movies in this category.

Should Win: It’s a toss up for me between American Sniper and Birdman.  Though war movies are a strong contender in Sound Editing, there’s something about the cinematography combined with the incredible jazz drumming that deserves recognition.

Sound Mixing

Will Win: American Sniper

Should Win: American Sniper

Visual Effects

Will Win: Dawn of the Planet of the Apes – it had the most supporting from the Visual Effects awards

Should Win: Interstellar – the visuals in the film are exquisite.  (And I may change my vote to this one by Sunday, so make your own call!)

Animated Feature

Will Win: How to Train Your Dragon 2 – a movie that I loved.

Should Win: The Lego Movie (not nominated) or The Boxtrolls (nominated but won’t win).  Don’t get me wrong, Dragon 2 was wonderful, but the Boxtrolls and the Lego Movie were so innovative and original.  The Lego Movie was a two hour commercial for Legos, and didn’t feel that way for one minute.  I’m still mad at its exclusion from this category.

Documentary Feature

Will Win: CitizenFour

Should Win: Virunga – while Edward Snowden and his story are interesting, Virunga is a tale of unequaled bravery and dedication in the face of life threatening danger.  Plus, gorillas.

Foreign Film

Will Win: Ida - no one can compete with a well done Holocaust movie, nor should anyone.  Especially one told through a different set of eyes.

Should Win: Wild Tales – don’t get me wrong, I loved Ida and I support its potential win.  But Wild Tales was a movie beyond all description.  It’s too funny to win an Oscar, but it was insanely good.

Animated Short

We have arrived at my rant for this year’s Oscars.  Be prepared… soap box, ascended so…

Will Win: The Dam Keeper

Should Win: Feast – Every year that I bet on a Disney short that is far superior to the rest of the candidate, I’m somehow shocked when it doesn’t win.  And once again, Feast was the best of the group – by far – but I’m not getting shafted again on this one.  The Animated Short category seems to have an aversion to honoring Disney, which is a shame because they make some really great animated shorts.

Soap box, descended.

Documentary Short

Will Win: Crisis Hotline: Veterans Press 1 – a truly superb documentary that combines tension and emotion, and honors the work of people who have very hard jobs serving people who genuinely deserve it.

Should Win: Crisis Hotline, but my runner up is Our Curse, a heartbreaking and at once uplifting story of parents nurturing their child who has a life threatening illness.

Live Action Short

Will Win: The Phone Call, starring one of my favorite actresses, Sally Hawkins, as a determined suicide crisis line worker trying to help a man who has called for company as he dies.

Should Win: Boogaloo and Graham – this is one of the few Oscar categories that often honors comedies, and Boogaloo and Graham was absolutely terrific, with two little boys and their pet chickens.  It has a chance.  But most of the experts (a category in which I would NOT place myself) are calling it for The Phone Call (by a very wide margin), so I'm not feeling brave enough to go with B&G.

So, those are my picks.  Do you agree?  Do you disagree?  Only Sunday will tell.  Happy Oscar viewing… you know I’ll be emotional the first time they say, “And the Oscar goes to…”