Who Should Win? Who Will Win?

 

I will warn you, while some categories seems to be shoo-ins, there's no chance I'll predict as well as I did last year (21 out 23!) but I'll do my best for you.  

Best Picture

Should Win: Everything Everywhere All at Once (because She Said isn't even nominated)

Will Win: Everything Everywhere All at Once

There isn't a single expert in the crowd who is predicting another film.  It has pretty much swept awards season all over the place, its leads are winning the vast majority of the awards, and so are the directors.

Director

Should Win: Literally anybody but Stephen Spielberg (nice movie, nothing new)

Will Win: "The Daniels" - Daniel Kwan and Daniel Scheinert, Everything Everywhere All at Once

The film was brilliant and quirky and different than anything you've seen before. And the group of artisans they put together to make this film shows the leadership that directing is really about... making the right choices.

Actress

Should Win: Michelle Yeoh, Everything Everywhere All at Once

Will Win: Michelle Yeoh, Everything Everywhere All at Once

It's a two woman race here with Cate Blanchett for Tar. Here are my two reasons for picking Yeoh. First, she won the SAG award, and the SAG/Oscars crossover is 75% for 3 out of 4 acting categories. While Yeoh and Blanchett have been trading wins through awards season, Tar features a lesbian sexual predator which aging voters may not care for (they failed to nominate a film about a sexual predator in Hollywood) and Yeoh authentically plays about 17 jillion characters in that film.

Actor

Should Win: Brendan Fraser, The Whale

Will Win: My heart says Brendan Fraser, my mind says Austin Butler, Elvis

Let's unpack this two-man really three-man race, if you add in a possible Colin Farrell. Fraser won the SAG award, which means he is really in it. Butler and Farrell are in films that are up for Best Picture, and the winner of the acting awards often go to them. Make no mistake, the experts do not agree and are about evenly split between Butler and Fraser.  In the category of "who you know," Fraser has been in the industry for 32 years and that gives a person a lot of time to build relationships with fellow voters. Hollywood loves a come back story. I'm going to pick Fraser and cross my fingers!

Supporting Actress

Should Win: Angela Bassett, Wakanda Forever

Will Win: Jamie Lee Curtis, Everything Everywhere All at Once

This is a three woman race again, with Kerry Condon. Jamie Lee Curtis won the SAG award and has been in the industry for over 40 years with no other nominations and wins. She is the daughter of Tony Curtis and Janet Leigh, which means she has relationships with EVERYBODY in the voting bloc. I think this award will be as much of a lifetime achievement award as a competitive one.

Supporting Actor

Should Win: Ke Huy Quan, Everything Everywhere All at Once (with a slight edge over Brendan Gleeson, Banshees of Inishirin)

Will Win: Ke Huy Quan, Everything Everywhere All at Once

Quan has won just about every single award on the path to the Oscars. This is the ONLY no brainer in the bunch. Go Data Go!

Adapted Screenplay

Should Win: Women Talking

Will Win: Women Talking

I refer to the screenplay awards as the consolation prize. "We know you really should win Best Picture, but you're not going to so have this." While there are a handful of critics picking All Quiet on the Western Front, the smart money is going to Women Talking (which is now streaming and I'm going to watch it again.)

Original Screenplay

Should Win: Banshees of Inishirin

Will Win: Everything Everywhere All at Once

Remember a moment ago I referred to the screenplay awards as the consolation prize? That has one exception and that is if the predicted Best Pic winner is so off the wall and original that you can't deny it.  Still a handful of experts are calling it for Banshees.  And, the most original of the pack is Triangle of Sadness.  Yikes! I don't even know what I think for this category... I'd love to see Banshees get it as the consolation prize.

Cinematography

Should Win: All Quiet on the Western Front

Will Win: All Quiet on the Western Front

War movies do well in this category. One note, Elvis won the ACS award, but All Quiet wasn't even nominated. All Quiet has 9 Oscar Noms and I think it is a fan favorite among Academy voters.

Costume Design

Should Win: Wakanda Forever for gorgeous, Everything Everywhere All at Once for the shirt made out of teddy bears and other wacky costumes

Will Win: Elvis appears to be the front runner

When I saw EEAAO I immediately called the Costume nomination for the creativity and incredible designs! I really really really want it to win. But this is one of those times when historical accuracy seems to be inching out what I consider to be the most original costumes since Priscilla Queen of the Desert (which did win, actually).

Film Editing

Should Win: Top Gun Maverick

Will Win: Everything Everywhere All at Once

EEAAO has the momentum, but seriously folks, the quick cuts in Maverick were just incredible. Action and sci fi films do well in this category, but I'm predicting a near sweep for EEAAO, inching Maverick out just one tiny bit.  I'll be happy to see either win.

Makeup and Hairstyling

Should Win: Elvis

Will Win: Elvis

The Whale has some buzz, but honestly, I still think Austin Butler looks like Elvis now with his regular face and that is just the lingering effect of the makeup and hairstyling that allowed Butler to age, to look like early and late career Elvis. Frankly, though I thought Butler did a great job in an okay movie, one of the reasons we are all so impressed by his performance has to be credited to the makeup and hairstyling.

Production Design

Should Win: Babylon (but also not nominated Everything Everywhere All at Once)

Will Win: Babylon

There are those who are also touting Elvis, but frankly, you can't see the opening party scene in Babylon and think that anything else is going to win.

Original Score

Should Win: The Banshees of Inishirin

Will Win: All Quiet on the Western Front

This is a hard one to predict and Babylon has some heat in this category. My rule of thumb is, Best Picture nominees do better in the "below the line" categories. As it happens, John Williams is nominated for his 53rd time for The Fabelmans and people love him, but he hasn't won 53 times so I think it will ultimately go to All Quiet.

Original Song

Should Win: Naatu Naatu, RRR

Will Win: Naatu Naatu, RRR

If you haven't seen this film, see it. If you haven't heard the song, go on YouTube right now and watch it. While my heart wants Diane Warren to finally win a competitive Oscar (for Tell it Like a Woman), that song just doesn't compare at all to this one.

Sound:

Should Win: Top Gun Maverick

Will Win: Top Gun Maverick

This should be Top Gun's single win at the Oscars this year. War films, sci fi films, and musicals always do well in this category, and I guess you could call Maverick war film adjacent.  Still, close your eyes and listen to those fighter jets flying and you'll know why this is the presumptive winner.

Visual Effects

Should Win: Avatar: The Way of Water

Will Win: Avatar: The Way of Water

Can we agree that anytime James Cameron is nominated in this category, he is just going to win? Way of Water was a beautiful film, and the effects are so good that you forget that they are effects!

Animated Feature

Should Win: Marcel the Shell with Shoes On (my favorite film of 2022)

Will Win: And I say this HOLDING MY NOSE, Guillermo del Toro's Pinocchio

And may I just say, if this film wins, can we all agree that no more Pinocchio films are necessary ever again? Let's call this the Pinocchio-est Pinocchio that ever Pinocchioed and move on. Blech.

Documentary

Should Win: Navalny (close second with A House Made of Splinters)

Will Win: Navalny

There's a single scene in this documentary that clinched the Oscar (if you haven't seen it, see it and you'll know which one I mean... Alexei is on the phone) but this one man's heroic stand again corruption and tyranny earns this film the gold statue.

International Film

Should Win: Argentina, 1985

Will Win: All Quiet on the Western Front

It's nominated for 9 Oscars, it's going to handily take this category. But please see Argentina, 1985. Actually, please see all of these wonderful films (except EO, unless you can take watching animal abuse).

Animated Short

Should Win: My Year of Dicks, seriously

Will Win: The Boy, The Mole, The Fox, and The Horse

The experts all agree on the The Boy et al, but I thought that My Year of Dicks was hilariously funny and had amazing animation. What a great short film (which is now streaming!) This category tends to go "heartwarming" and this is for sure the most heartwarming of a so so crop of films.

Live Action Short

Should Win: An Irish Goodbye

Will Win: An Irish Goodbye

This is an especially hard one to pick and I really loved this year's batch of Live Action shorts. In the past, Live Action has chosen the funny and charming films over the more serious ones. An Irish Goodbye was really the best of the lot.  Many people think the star power that Alfonso Cuaron brings to Le Pupille puts it at the top. There is also The Red Suitcase that has an incredible story of a girl fighting not to be a child bride. But I'm going with my heart on this one - An Irish Goodbye meets the funny and heartwarming requirements for this category, and I'm sticking with my heart.

Documentary Short

Should Win: Stranger at the Gate

Will Win: Stranger at the Gate

The experts are pretty split on this one, with The Elephant Whisperers close behind Stranger at the Gate. I think Hollywood types will have loved watching a MAGA Islamophobe almost-domestic terrorist have a change of heart because of how the local Islamic community welcomed him, and ultimately led to him converting to Islam. It's a political choice. It's changing your heart with personal experience IF you are open to what your eyes are showing you. That's a pretty strong message and one terrific short.

Ok, there you go! This is a hard year of close calls and I would love nothing more than for you to win your Oscar pool. Just let me know if you do!