Who Should Win? Who Will Win? 2025 edition

 

 

OK my little Oscars babies! The day has arrived and it's time to put pencil to paper (keyboard to screen) and make some predictions. This is a fun year in that we are walking into tonight's broadcast with a lot of unknowns and far fewer slam dunks than in the past. That makes my predicting power greatly diminished, but as you know, I've done a ton of research and I'll do my best for you. As always, if you win your pool, I expect 10%! 

Best Picture:

Should Win: A Complete Unknown

Yeah yeah, I know there isn't a person alive predicting this as the winner, but it was a fantastic film with brilliant performances and I sang out loud in the theater.

Will Win: Anora

This race appears to be neck in neck with Conclave but Anora was so different than the others that I just think it is going to eke out a win. It won't be by a lot though.

Best Director:

Should Win: Jacques Audiard, Emilia Perez

Will Win: Sean Baker, Anora

The best predictor of this one is the DGA award for Theatrical Film, and Baker won this one. I think it's going to be an interesting night because though nobody is predicting her to win, Coralie Fargeat has gotten a lot of love for The Substance.

Actress:

Should Win: If not a 5-way tie, then Cynthia Erivo

Will Win: Demi Moore, The Substance

While I didn't like the film, there's no arguing her performance. She and Mikey Madison have been trading awards all season, but that coveted SAG Award put Moore over the top for me. Madison will be back.

Actor:

Should Win: Timothee Chalamet, A Complete Unknown

Will Win: Timothee Chalamet, A Complete Unknown

I can't quite figure out why I'm not a big fan of Chalamet. He is inarguably an excellent actor. But this performance was without rival. There's lots of Oscars history for biopics where non-singers  (or at least those not famous for playing and singing) win the award when they perform and play (Sissy Spacek, Joaquin Phoenix, Reese Withspoon, to name a few), and I think this is Chalamet's year.

Supporting Actress:

Should Win: Zoe Saldana, Emilia Perez

Will Win: Zoe Saldana, Emilia Perez

I didn't know she could do that, did you???

Supporting Actor:

Should Win: Kieran Culkin, A Real Pain

Will Win: Kieran Culkin, A Real Pain

With a little shout out to Edward Norton who did the most convincing portrayal of Pete Seeger I've seen, and the banjo ain't easy to learn.

Adapted Screenplay:

Should Win: Sing Sing

Will Win: Conclave

I see the screenplay awards often given to the Best Picture runner up. With the Picture race so tight, I see Anora winning the Picture prize and Conclave winning the Screenplay prize.

Original Screenplay:

Should Win: A Real Pain

Will Win: Anora

Now, if we take my above statement to be true, if Conclave wins then Anora would be the winner here, and it may very well be. But A Real Pain won the BAFTA and the Independent Spirit Award for Original Screenplay. Anora won the Writers Guild Award for Original Screenplay, and that's the only reason I'm not picking A Real Pain.

Cinematography:

Should Win: Nosferatu

Will Win: Nosferatu

I'm the only one on a limb picking this film, but the black and white, the darkness, the use of shadow and light... how can anything else beat this one for Cinematography. I'll tell you that the experts believe it will be The Brutalist, and maybe they are right. But for this one, I'm going in a different direction.

Costume Design:

Should Win: Wicked

Will Win: Wicked

I mean... come on.

Editing:

Should Win: Emilia Perez

Will Win: Conclave

Tough call here, and if Anora is racking up awards tonight, this could unseat Conclave. But I think this might just be a night of a handful of films taking many awards, and this one will be a squeaker.

Makeup and Hairstyling:

Should Win: A Different Man

Will Win: The Substance

And I suppose that's fair. Turning Demi Moore into a totally disfigured elderly woman is a feat in itself. (and for the record, I'd trade with Demi Moore right now, never mind the younger version)

Production Design:

Should Win: Wicked

Will Win: Wicked

Again, come on.

Original Score:

Should Win: Wicked

Will Win: The Brutalist

Original Song:

Should Win: The Journey, The Six Triple Eight

Will Win: El Mal, Emilia Perez

Sound:

Should Win:  Wicked

Will Win: Dune, Part 2

Visual Effects:

Should Win: Dune, Part 2

Will Win: Dune, Part 2

Animated Feature: 

Should Win: The Wild Robot

Will Win: The Wild Robot

Documentary Feature:

Should Win: Porcelain War

Will Win: No Other Land

Anytime we have the opportunity to shit all over Israel, we must take it, no? And a preemptive screw you to anyone wearing red hand pins. Those red hands are literally representations of murdering Jews with one's bare hands, not a symbol of giving Palestinians a better life.

International Film:

Should Win: I'm Still Here

Will Win: I'm Still Here

Animated Short:

Should Win: Yuck!

Will Win: Yuck!

Documentary Short:

Should Win: Incident

Will Win: I Am Ready, Warden

This is a hard one to pick, they were all excellent. But Incident wasn't shot with professional cameras. It was pieced together with bodycam footage, security cam footage, and various phone footage. And it was strung together to make a very compelling case for what actually happened.

Live Action Short:

Should Win: The Man Who Could Not Remain Silent

Will Win: A Lien, and I'll be very happy about that too

I'd like The Man Who Could Not Remain Silent to win because even if we think we would have hidden Anne Frank in our attics, most of us would not. Even if we think we would speak up against our chosen government which does illegal things, we don't. We are not as brave as we think, which is why we should avoid totalitarian and authoritarian governments. When they do something you don't like, you will not speak up.