Who Should Win? Who Will Win? 2025 edition

 

 

OK my little Oscars babies! The day has arrived and it's time to put pencil to paper (keyboard to screen) and make some predictions. This is a fun year in that we are walking into tonight's broadcast with a lot of unknowns and far fewer slam dunks than in the past. That makes my predicting power greatly diminished, but as you know, I've done a ton of research and I'll do my best for you. As always, if you win your pool, I expect 10%! 

Best Picture:

Should Win: A Complete Unknown

Yeah yeah, I know there isn't a person alive predicting this as the winner, but it was a fantastic film with brilliant performances and I sang out loud in the theater.

Will Win: Anora

This race appears to be neck in neck with Conclave but Anora was so different than the others that I just think it is going to eke out a win. It won't be by a lot though.

Best Director:

Should Win: Jacques Audiard, Emilia Perez

Will Win: Sean Baker, Anora

The best predictor of this one is the DGA award for Theatrical Film, and Baker won this one. I think it's going to be an interesting night because though nobody is predicting her to win, Coralie Fargeat has gotten a lot of love for The Substance.

Actress:

Should Win: If not a 5-way tie, then Cynthia Erivo

Will Win: Demi Moore, The Substance

While I didn't like the film, there's no arguing her performance. She and Mikey Madison have been trading awards all season, but that coveted SAG Award put Moore over the top for me. Madison will be back.

Actor:

Should Win: Timothee Chalamet, A Complete Unknown

Will Win: Timothee Chalamet, A Complete Unknown

I can't quite figure out why I'm not a big fan of Chalamet. He is inarguably an excellent actor. But this performance was without rival. There's lots of Oscars history for biopics where non-singers  (or at least those not famous for playing and singing) win the award when they perform and play (Sissy Spacek, Joaquin Phoenix, Reese Withspoon, to name a few), and I think this is Chalamet's year.

Supporting Actress:

Should Win: Zoe Saldana, Emilia Perez

Will Win: Zoe Saldana, Emilia Perez

I didn't know she could do that, did you???

Supporting Actor:

Should Win: Kieran Culkin, A Real Pain

Will Win: Kieran Culkin, A Real Pain

With a little shout out to Edward Norton who did the most convincing portrayal of Pete Seeger I've seen, and the banjo ain't easy to learn.

Adapted Screenplay:

Should Win: Sing Sing

Will Win: Conclave

I see the screenplay awards often given to the Best Picture runner up. With the Picture race so tight, I see Anora winning the Picture prize and Conclave winning the Screenplay prize.

Original Screenplay:

Should Win: A Real Pain

Will Win: Anora

Now, if we take my above statement to be true, if Conclave wins then Anora would be the winner here, and it may very well be. But A Real Pain won the BAFTA and the Independent Spirit Award for Original Screenplay. Anora won the Writers Guild Award for Original Screenplay, and that's the only reason I'm not picking A Real Pain.

Cinematography:

Should Win: Nosferatu

Will Win: Nosferatu

I'm the only one on a limb picking this film, but the black and white, the darkness, the use of shadow and light... how can anything else beat this one for Cinematography. I'll tell you that the experts believe it will be The Brutalist, and maybe they are right. But for this one, I'm going in a different direction.

Costume Design:

Should Win: Wicked

Will Win: Wicked

I mean... come on.

Editing:

Should Win: Emilia Perez

Will Win: Conclave

Tough call here, and if Anora is racking up awards tonight, this could unseat Conclave. But I think this might just be a night of a handful of films taking many awards, and this one will be a squeaker.

Makeup and Hairstyling:

Should Win: A Different Man

Will Win: The Substance

And I suppose that's fair. Turning Demi Moore into a totally disfigured elderly woman is a feat in itself. (and for the record, I'd trade with Demi Moore right now, never mind the younger version)

Production Design:

Should Win: Wicked

Will Win: Wicked

Again, come on.

Original Score:

Should Win: Wicked

Will Win: The Brutalist

Original Song:

Should Win: The Journey, The Six Triple Eight

Will Win: El Mal, Emilia Perez

Sound:

Should Win:  Wicked

Will Win: Dune, Part 2

Visual Effects:

Should Win: Dune, Part 2

Will Win: Dune, Part 2

Animated Feature: 

Should Win: The Wild Robot

Will Win: The Wild Robot

Documentary Feature:

Should Win: Porcelain War

Will Win: No Other Land

Anytime we have the opportunity to shit all over Israel, we must take it, no? And a preemptive screw you to anyone wearing red hand pins. Those red hands are literally representations of murdering Jews with one's bare hands, not a symbol of giving Palestinians a better life.

International Film:

Should Win: I'm Still Here

Will Win: I'm Still Here

Animated Short:

Should Win: Yuck!

Will Win: Yuck!

Documentary Short:

Should Win: Incident

Will Win: I Am Ready, Warden

This is a hard one to pick, they were all excellent. But Incident wasn't shot with professional cameras. It was pieced together with bodycam footage, security cam footage, and various phone footage. And it was strung together to make a very compelling case for what actually happened.

Live Action Short:

Should Win: The Man Who Could Not Remain Silent

Will Win: A Lien, and I'll be very happy about that too

I'd like The Man Who Could Not Remain Silent to win because even if we think we would have hidden Anne Frank in our attics, most of us would not. Even if we think we would speak up against our chosen government which does illegal things, we don't. We are not as brave as we think, which is why we should avoid totalitarian and authoritarian governments. When they do something you don't like, you will not speak up.

Who Should Win? Who Will Win?

 

I will warn you, while some categories seems to be shoo-ins, there's no chance I'll predict as well as I did last year (21 out 23!) but I'll do my best for you.  

Best Picture

Should Win: Everything Everywhere All at Once (because She Said isn't even nominated)

Will Win: Everything Everywhere All at Once

There isn't a single expert in the crowd who is predicting another film.  It has pretty much swept awards season all over the place, its leads are winning the vast majority of the awards, and so are the directors.

Director

Should Win: Literally anybody but Stephen Spielberg (nice movie, nothing new)

Will Win: "The Daniels" - Daniel Kwan and Daniel Scheinert, Everything Everywhere All at Once

The film was brilliant and quirky and different than anything you've seen before. And the group of artisans they put together to make this film shows the leadership that directing is really about... making the right choices.

Actress

Should Win: Michelle Yeoh, Everything Everywhere All at Once

Will Win: Michelle Yeoh, Everything Everywhere All at Once

It's a two woman race here with Cate Blanchett for Tar. Here are my two reasons for picking Yeoh. First, she won the SAG award, and the SAG/Oscars crossover is 75% for 3 out of 4 acting categories. While Yeoh and Blanchett have been trading wins through awards season, Tar features a lesbian sexual predator which aging voters may not care for (they failed to nominate a film about a sexual predator in Hollywood) and Yeoh authentically plays about 17 jillion characters in that film.

Actor

Should Win: Brendan Fraser, The Whale

Will Win: My heart says Brendan Fraser, my mind says Austin Butler, Elvis

Let's unpack this two-man really three-man race, if you add in a possible Colin Farrell. Fraser won the SAG award, which means he is really in it. Butler and Farrell are in films that are up for Best Picture, and the winner of the acting awards often go to them. Make no mistake, the experts do not agree and are about evenly split between Butler and Fraser.  In the category of "who you know," Fraser has been in the industry for 32 years and that gives a person a lot of time to build relationships with fellow voters. Hollywood loves a come back story. I'm going to pick Fraser and cross my fingers!

Supporting Actress

Should Win: Angela Bassett, Wakanda Forever

Will Win: Jamie Lee Curtis, Everything Everywhere All at Once

This is a three woman race again, with Kerry Condon. Jamie Lee Curtis won the SAG award and has been in the industry for over 40 years with no other nominations and wins. She is the daughter of Tony Curtis and Janet Leigh, which means she has relationships with EVERYBODY in the voting bloc. I think this award will be as much of a lifetime achievement award as a competitive one.

Supporting Actor

Should Win: Ke Huy Quan, Everything Everywhere All at Once (with a slight edge over Brendan Gleeson, Banshees of Inishirin)

Will Win: Ke Huy Quan, Everything Everywhere All at Once

Quan has won just about every single award on the path to the Oscars. This is the ONLY no brainer in the bunch. Go Data Go!

Adapted Screenplay

Should Win: Women Talking

Will Win: Women Talking

I refer to the screenplay awards as the consolation prize. "We know you really should win Best Picture, but you're not going to so have this." While there are a handful of critics picking All Quiet on the Western Front, the smart money is going to Women Talking (which is now streaming and I'm going to watch it again.)

Original Screenplay

Should Win: Banshees of Inishirin

Will Win: Everything Everywhere All at Once

Remember a moment ago I referred to the screenplay awards as the consolation prize? That has one exception and that is if the predicted Best Pic winner is so off the wall and original that you can't deny it.  Still a handful of experts are calling it for Banshees.  And, the most original of the pack is Triangle of Sadness.  Yikes! I don't even know what I think for this category... I'd love to see Banshees get it as the consolation prize.

Cinematography

Should Win: All Quiet on the Western Front

Will Win: All Quiet on the Western Front

War movies do well in this category. One note, Elvis won the ACS award, but All Quiet wasn't even nominated. All Quiet has 9 Oscar Noms and I think it is a fan favorite among Academy voters.

Costume Design

Should Win: Wakanda Forever for gorgeous, Everything Everywhere All at Once for the shirt made out of teddy bears and other wacky costumes

Will Win: Elvis appears to be the front runner

When I saw EEAAO I immediately called the Costume nomination for the creativity and incredible designs! I really really really want it to win. But this is one of those times when historical accuracy seems to be inching out what I consider to be the most original costumes since Priscilla Queen of the Desert (which did win, actually).

Film Editing

Should Win: Top Gun Maverick

Will Win: Everything Everywhere All at Once

EEAAO has the momentum, but seriously folks, the quick cuts in Maverick were just incredible. Action and sci fi films do well in this category, but I'm predicting a near sweep for EEAAO, inching Maverick out just one tiny bit.  I'll be happy to see either win.

Makeup and Hairstyling

Should Win: Elvis

Will Win: Elvis

The Whale has some buzz, but honestly, I still think Austin Butler looks like Elvis now with his regular face and that is just the lingering effect of the makeup and hairstyling that allowed Butler to age, to look like early and late career Elvis. Frankly, though I thought Butler did a great job in an okay movie, one of the reasons we are all so impressed by his performance has to be credited to the makeup and hairstyling.

Production Design

Should Win: Babylon (but also not nominated Everything Everywhere All at Once)

Will Win: Babylon

There are those who are also touting Elvis, but frankly, you can't see the opening party scene in Babylon and think that anything else is going to win.

Original Score

Should Win: The Banshees of Inishirin

Will Win: All Quiet on the Western Front

This is a hard one to predict and Babylon has some heat in this category. My rule of thumb is, Best Picture nominees do better in the "below the line" categories. As it happens, John Williams is nominated for his 53rd time for The Fabelmans and people love him, but he hasn't won 53 times so I think it will ultimately go to All Quiet.

Original Song

Should Win: Naatu Naatu, RRR

Will Win: Naatu Naatu, RRR

If you haven't seen this film, see it. If you haven't heard the song, go on YouTube right now and watch it. While my heart wants Diane Warren to finally win a competitive Oscar (for Tell it Like a Woman), that song just doesn't compare at all to this one.

Sound:

Should Win: Top Gun Maverick

Will Win: Top Gun Maverick

This should be Top Gun's single win at the Oscars this year. War films, sci fi films, and musicals always do well in this category, and I guess you could call Maverick war film adjacent.  Still, close your eyes and listen to those fighter jets flying and you'll know why this is the presumptive winner.

Visual Effects

Should Win: Avatar: The Way of Water

Will Win: Avatar: The Way of Water

Can we agree that anytime James Cameron is nominated in this category, he is just going to win? Way of Water was a beautiful film, and the effects are so good that you forget that they are effects!

Animated Feature

Should Win: Marcel the Shell with Shoes On (my favorite film of 2022)

Will Win: And I say this HOLDING MY NOSE, Guillermo del Toro's Pinocchio

And may I just say, if this film wins, can we all agree that no more Pinocchio films are necessary ever again? Let's call this the Pinocchio-est Pinocchio that ever Pinocchioed and move on. Blech.

Documentary

Should Win: Navalny (close second with A House Made of Splinters)

Will Win: Navalny

There's a single scene in this documentary that clinched the Oscar (if you haven't seen it, see it and you'll know which one I mean... Alexei is on the phone) but this one man's heroic stand again corruption and tyranny earns this film the gold statue.

International Film

Should Win: Argentina, 1985

Will Win: All Quiet on the Western Front

It's nominated for 9 Oscars, it's going to handily take this category. But please see Argentina, 1985. Actually, please see all of these wonderful films (except EO, unless you can take watching animal abuse).

Animated Short

Should Win: My Year of Dicks, seriously

Will Win: The Boy, The Mole, The Fox, and The Horse

The experts all agree on the The Boy et al, but I thought that My Year of Dicks was hilariously funny and had amazing animation. What a great short film (which is now streaming!) This category tends to go "heartwarming" and this is for sure the most heartwarming of a so so crop of films.

Live Action Short

Should Win: An Irish Goodbye

Will Win: An Irish Goodbye

This is an especially hard one to pick and I really loved this year's batch of Live Action shorts. In the past, Live Action has chosen the funny and charming films over the more serious ones. An Irish Goodbye was really the best of the lot.  Many people think the star power that Alfonso Cuaron brings to Le Pupille puts it at the top. There is also The Red Suitcase that has an incredible story of a girl fighting not to be a child bride. But I'm going with my heart on this one - An Irish Goodbye meets the funny and heartwarming requirements for this category, and I'm sticking with my heart.

Documentary Short

Should Win: Stranger at the Gate

Will Win: Stranger at the Gate

The experts are pretty split on this one, with The Elephant Whisperers close behind Stranger at the Gate. I think Hollywood types will have loved watching a MAGA Islamophobe almost-domestic terrorist have a change of heart because of how the local Islamic community welcomed him, and ultimately led to him converting to Islam. It's a political choice. It's changing your heart with personal experience IF you are open to what your eyes are showing you. That's a pretty strong message and one terrific short.

Ok, there you go! This is a hard year of close calls and I would love nothing more than for you to win your Oscar pool. Just let me know if you do!

Who Will Win? Who Should Win?

We have arrived at the big day! What a year of outstanding movies, incredible performances, and so many historic firsts I've lost count.  Now, I'm not a great prognosticator but I do a lot of research on what some of my favorite ones think, and I try to put those into an aggregate and make my best guesses.  If you win your pool thanks to my picks, don't forget to send me a 10% fee.  Here we go!

Best Picture:
Should Win: Belfast
When the film was over, I immediately said "that's Best Picture."

Will Win: CODA
This is a tough year to predict, but given some of the earlier wins in other awards shows, I think it is going to be CODA.  If I'm wrong, the experts are equally split with The Power of the Dog.  This is one close race!

Director:

Should Win: Jane Campion, The Power of the Dog

Will Win: Jane Campion, The Power of the Dog

Jane reinvented what a cowboy movie looks like and the intensity of this film spoke to me.  Even if you are completely out on Power of the Dog, you have to admit that this is gold standard directing.

Lead Actress:

Should Win: Jessica Chastain, The Eyes of Tammy Faye

Will Win: Jessica Chastain, The Eyes of Tammy Faye

Look for an upset in this category!  Penelope Cruz (Parallel Mothers) and Kristen Stewart (Spencer) are not to be counted out.  I loved The Eyes of Tammy Faye and it's incredible how Chastain just embodied this well known figure.

Lead Actor:

Should Win: Andrew Garfield, tick, tick... Boom!

Will Win: Will Smith, King Richard

I don't think there's much chance of upset in this category, but for the record, Andrew Garfield learned how to sing for that movie.  Will Smith is a Hollywood darling and here's his first chance to take the prize.

Supporting Actress:

Should Win: Ariana DeBose, West Side Story

Will Win: Ariana DeBose, West Side Story

Supporting Actor:

Should Win: Troy Kotsur, CODA

Will Win: Troy Kotsur, CODA

And will mark the first deaf man to win an Oscar in history.

Adapted Screenplay:

Should Win: GRRRR, don't make me choose! Ok, The Lost Daughter

Will Win: CODA (I hope, I'm loving all of the recognition CODA is getting)

Original Screenplay:

Should Win: Belfast

Will Win: Belfast (but maybe Licorice Pizza)

This category is often won by a film that should win a Best Picture award but doesn't.  I'm going with Belfast and praying that Licorice Pizza is not awarded that prize.

Cinematography:

Should Win: The Tragedy of Macbeth

Will Win: The Power of the Dog

Or maybe Dune, but cinematographers do love a good countryside and expansive views.  Dune had this as well and frankly is predicted to win a lot of the technical categories. Hard to know, but I'm slightly giving the edge to Power of the Dog which got so much more attention than Dune did, despite being tied for numbers of nominations.

Costume Design:

Should Win: Cruella with an honorable mention to West Side Story

Will Win: Cruella

Boy oh boy, were those costumes incredible!

Film Editing:

Should Win: tick, tick... Boom!

Will Win: Dune

Here's where you're going to start seeing a slew of Dune predictions.  But truly, the film was edited magnificently.

Makeup and Hair:

Should Win: The Eyes of Tammy Faye

Will Win: The Eyes of Tammy Faye

Production Design:

Should Win: Nightmare Alley

Will Win: Dune

Original Score:

Should Win: Encanto

Will Win: Dune

Original Song:

Should Win: "Somehow You Do" Four Good Days

Will Win: "No Time to Die" No Time to Die

Sound:

Should Win: West Side Story

Will Win: Dune

Visual Effects:

Should Win: Shang-Chi and the Legend of the Ten Rings

Will Win: Dune

Animated Feature:

Should Win: Flee

Will Win: Encanto

I'd even love to see the Mitchells vs the Machines, and sometimes the academy does snub Disney films,  Flee was the most important and powerful of the nominees, and deserves to win.

Documentary:

Should Win: Writing with Fire (but also Summer of Soul as a tie, please)

Will Win: Summer of Soul (... or, When the Revolution Could Not be Televised)

International Feature:

Should Win: The Worst Person in the World

Will Win: Drive My Car

Critics have said that Drive My Car was the best film of the year and should win Best Picture, as well.  I disagree.

Animated Short:

Should Win: None of them.  Robin Robin was the least annoying.

Will Win: Robin Robin, I guess.  Windshield Wiper could upset.

Documentary Short:

Should Win: Lead Me Home

Will Win: The Queen of Basketball

The films were excellent in this category this year, but I think the attraction of a woman athlete who was almost recruited to the NBA will win hearts.  But Lead Me Home is the most important and gut wrenching of the nominees.

Live Action Short:

Should Win: All of them, but especially Please Hold

Will Win: The Long Goodbye

This is also a tough category because of how great all (but maybe 1) were.

Ok, those are my picks!  Would love to hear yours...