Who Should Win? Who Will Win?

 

Just a couple of hours until showtime!  And here are my "predictions" in this crazy year.  Recently on the @2MovieJews podcast you can hear me say, "we are right in our opinions if not in our predictions," and in a year like this, I think you can expect some real upsets.

Best Picture:

Should Win: Sound of Metal

Will Win: Nomadland

As you may have read in my reviews of both films, I adored both of these films.  I couldn't stop thinking about Nomadland for days and I agree that is the best film of the year.  But Sound of Metal was so different, so captivating, I would love to see it this kind of totally unexpected recognition.

Best Director:

Should Win: Chloe Zhao, Nomadland

Will Win: Chloe Zhao, Nomadland

This film had a clear vision, unbelievable execution, and was gorgeous to watch in every moment.  I promise this is the last time this Oscars season that I will say this, but I would really have loved to see Regina King be nominated and win this category.

Actress in a Leading Role:

Should Win: Andra Day, The United States vs Billie Holiday

Will Win: Who the hell knows, but if the SAG award history is true to its past, Viola Davis.

I'm not kidding, this could be another 1969 tie for lead actress.  Every actress in the list except Vanessa Kirby has won one of the indicator awards (Golden Globes, SAG, Independent Spirit, etc.). But I'm cheering specifically for Andra Day who did what great actresses in the past have done, that is, completely embody the real life person being portrayed (Sissy Spacek, Coal Miner's Daughter, Renee Zellweger, and others ) and also looking right into the camera and crushing your soul by singing the song (Jennifer Hudson, Dreamgirls, Anne Hathaway, Les Miserables, and others.). If Oscars history is right, Andra Day takes the gold.  If SAG history is right, Viola Davis takes the gold.  And you can NEVER count out the lead actress from the likely Best Picture winner, so yeah, maybe Frances McDormand takes the gold.

Actor in a Leading Role:

Should Win: Riz Ahmed, Sound of Metal

Will Win (and I'll be happy about it too): Chadwick Boseman, Ma Rainey's Black Bottom

Oof, this is literally Chadwick Boseman's last opportunity posthumously, but Riz Ahmed just killed it.  He learned sign language, for goodness sakes.  But Riz will live to win again, and I think Chadwick Boseman will win.

Actress in a Supporting Role:

Should Win: Glenn Close, Hillbilly Elegy

Will Win: Yuh-Jung Youn, Minari

I'm sorry, I'm just a sucker for Glenn Close and it's a crime that with 8 nominations, she's never won.  But then again, I'm also a sucker for a lifelong actress winning in her advanced age with just a little time left to win.  And Yuh-Jung Youn's portrayal of the sassy grandma in Minari was worthy of recognition.

Actor in a Supporting Role:

Should Win: Daniel Kaluuya, Judas and the Black Messiah

Will Win: Daniel Kaluuya, Judas and the Black Messiah

In addition to this singular performance, I'd love to see Leslie Odom, Jr. win for One Night in Miami.    But Daniel's performance is so heightened and so impactful, I don't see how he doesn't win.

Adapted Screenplay:

Should Win: The Father

Will Win: The experts say The Father

Here's the thing about screenplay categories.  They almost never award the screenplay to the Best Picture winner.  I've said that it's kind of the consolation prize.  While I also think that Borat is a totally different kind of achievement, this is the first Alzheimers film ever to show us what dementia is like inside the person who is experiencing it.  The total confusion that we feel watching the film while still developing an understanding of what is going on is what I think makes the screenplay a standout.

Original Screenplay:

Should Win: The Trial of the Chicago 7

Will Win: The experts say Promising Young Woman

Hard to say what is going to pan out here because the experts have amazing track records, but I just really love me some Aaron Sorkin.  For safety, I'd stick with Promising Young Woman.

Cinematography:

Should Win: Nomadland

Will Win: Nomadland

I just want you to think about the level of difficulty producing a film that is constantly outside in the elements and inside of a van with crazy lighting.  The exquisite cinematography was practically another lead actor in the film.

Costume Design:

Should Win: Ma Rainey's Black Bottom

Will Win: Ma Rainey's Black Bottom

Seriously, do a little googling of the actual Ma Rainey - these costumes took her style and then somehow made the costumes more authentic than the originals.  Plus you know what I always say about costumes and period pieces... and I'm giving it to Ma Rainey over Emma because of the sparkle factor.

Film Editing:

Should Win: Sound of Metal or The Trial of the Chicago 7

Will Win: Conventional wisdom would say The Trial of the Chicago 7

But, the non-linear telling of a story tends to get more attention from the Academy giving The Trial of the Chicago 7 a slight edge.

Makeup and Hairstyling:

Should Win: Pinocchio

Will Win: Ma Rainey's Black Bottom

Ok ok, I know you're reading this and thinking, "was Pinocchio even a movie this year?"  It was, and no kidding the makeup and hairstyling were a knockout, especially Pinocchio who did look wooden.  But when you take a gorgeous woman like Viola Davis and make her look like she looked in Ma Rainey, with a much more high profile film, it's unlikely that Ma Rainey (with also superb hairstyling, truly) will lose.  PS much like happened in the sound category combining this year, it is often true that the makeup artist carries the hairstyler on his or her back, or visa versa.  With Ma Rainey, you really get both.

Production Design:

Should Win: Mank

Will Win: Mank

The other film that does really deserve recognition for Production Design is Emma, which wasn't nominated at all in this category.  Mank captures the Hollywood of old so perfectly including the Citizen Kane inspired decadence of William Randolph Hearst - I think the oversized nature of the production design will win.

Original Score:

Should Win: Da 5 Bloods

Will Win: Soul

Literally all of the experts I research agree that Soul is the clear winner.  But I do want to pay homage to Da 5 Bloods and its incredible score.

Original Song:

Should Win: Speak Now, One Night in Miami

Will Win: Speak Now, One Night in Miami

Experts are really mixed on this one, with second place going to Husavik from Eurovision Song Contest.  Now, the Academy has a serious past of getting this one completely wrong.  (Diane Warren should have won for Til It Happens to You.). And this category is one that has a history of completely random surprises (It's Tough Out Here for A Pimp from Hustle and Flow comes to mind.). But damn it, Speak Now is saying something so important.  

Best Sound:

Should Win: Sound of Metal

Will Win: SOUND OF METAL

I meant it people.  Want to know what it's like to experience the world as a person who is going deaf?  Watch the film. (Want to know how they did it?  Here's a short doc which explains it.)

Visual Effects:

Should Win: Tenet

Will Win: Tenet

I may not have any idea what the movie was about, but the visual effects were cool.

Animated Feature:

Should Win: Over the Moon

Will Win: Soul

Ok, I know Pixar is going to be the winner and the film was good, but Over the Moon was a full, brilliant, animated musical.  The animation was bright and colorful and magnificent.  Promise me you will watch this film!

Documentary:

Should Win: Time

Will Win: My Octopus Teacher or maybe Crip Camp

Literally 1 expert has picked Time, but I'm telling you now, there is no documentary feat greater than following a story for 20 with unpredictable outcomes.  This movie was a magic trick.  The other two are about split among experts and great prognosticators and my take is that My Octopus Teacher was more stunning and Crip Camp was more satisfying.  (But could I please impose upon you to see The Mole Agent?  It was my sentimental favorite of the 5.)

International Film:

Should Win:  All 5, with Quo Vadis, Aida? being the most important.

Will Win: Another Round

Yes, go back and read the blog post.  I loved Another Round.  But I was blown away by Quo Vadis.  I'd like to boost some attention for Better Days from Hong Kong about bullying.  Please make sure to see it.

Animated Short:

Should Win: If Anything Happens, I Love You

Will Win: If Anything Happens, I Love You

The aftermath of gun violence is portrayed so heartbreakingly.

Documentary Short:

Should Win: A Concerto is a Conversation

Will Win: A Concerto is a Conversation, with maybe maybe A Love Song for Latasha

Sometimes the Academy surprises us and while Concerto is slightly lighter than the others (in a field of very heavy short films), there is something important about Concerto (which you can see in its entirety on YouTube).

Live Action Short:

Should Win: Feeling Through (I sobbed)

Will Win: Two Distant Strangers 

If any film properly honors the best learning for the naive about Black Lives Matter, Two Distant Strangers does. It is beyond timely.  It is beyond important.  But I sobbed watching Feeling Through, so it is my sentimental favorite.

With still a couple of hours until the broadcast, here is the podcast episode we did on the Oscars this year, just a quick 30 minutes to orient you to what you are going to be watching tonight, with no prerequisite of having seeing any of the films. I  recommend you subscribe as we have some incredible episode themes coming up, including movies we love that everybody hates.  See if you disagree!