Who Should Win? Who Will Win?

Today is the big day!  Do I say that every year?  Well, I'm excited to see what happens tonight.  There are several categories that I believe are absolutely locked.  You'll see those below!

Best Picture:
Should Win: Little Women
Honestly, I loved the majority of the top 9 this year, but this one was the most original adapted screenplay, and you know what?  That's not easy for a book that was published in 1868 and has had nine movie adaptations.
Will Win: 1917
I think the compelling story combined with the incredible artistry of the filmmaking will eke it out over the much hyped possible win for Parasite.  It is not often that Best Pictures have no acting nominations, but this will be one of those years.

Lead Actor:
Should Win: Joaquin Phoenix
Will Win: Joaquin Phoenix (Joker)

Lead Actress:
Should Win: Renee Zellweger, with honorable mention to Cynthia Erivo (Harriet)
Will Win: Renee Zellweger (Judy)

Supporting Actor:
Should Win: Joe Pesci (The Irishman)
I loved this performance and he was the best thing about the movie.
Will Win: Brad Pitt (Once Upon a Time in Hollywood)

Supporting Actress:
Should Win: Laura Dern
Will Win: Laura Dern (Marriage Story)

Director:
Should Win: Sam Mendes
Will Win: Sam Mendes
I do think he is going to pull it out, but look for an upset with Bong Joon Ho.  It's also notable when the "split" happens between Best Picture and Director winners.  But when you make a movie like 1917, I think you get the award.

Animated Feature:
Should Win: Klaus (winner of the Hidden Gem award this year!)
Will Win: Klaus
Ok, I"m going out on a limb with this one.  Toy Story 4 has about equal attention from all of the best Oscars predictors with Klaus.  And I think Toy Story 4 is the safest choice, but I'm just going to go all in on Klaus which was truly one of my favorite of all the nominated films.  You never know, winners surprise us all the time.

Animated Short:
Should Win: Hair Love
Will Win: Hair Love

Adapted Screenplay:
Should Win: Jojo Rabbit
Will Win: Jojo Rabbit
With a very close second for Little Women.  I think little Jojo is going to take the award.

Original Screenplay:
Should Win: Knives Out
Will Win: Parasite
This award often goes to the movie that could have been the Best Picture award winner but just didn't quite make it.  I think Oscars voters split their votes and give one to Best Picture and one to Screenplay as a way of saying, "we liked you both."

Cinematography:
Should Win: 1917
Will Win: 1917
I mean, how did they do that????

Documentary Feature:
Should Win: The Cave
Will Win: American Factory
American Factory is on Netflix and I highly recommend you watch it.  It's very helpful to understanding the global economy.

Documentary Short:
Should Win: Learning to Skateboard in a Warzone (if you're a girl)
Will Win: Learning to Skateboard in a Warzone (if you're a girl)
With very special honorable mention to In the Absence.  Actually, I really enjoyed every documentary short and I highly recommend you watch them.  Life Overtakes Me is on Netflix and it is imperative that you watch this.

Live Action Short:
Should Win: Nefta Football Club (it would be nice to have one with some comedy in it)
Will Win: The Neighbor's Window
And by the way, this live action short is both funny and emotional.

International Feature:
Should Win: Parasite
Will Win: Parasite

Film Editing:
Should Win: Ford v Ferrari
Will Win: Parasite

Sound Editing:
Should Win: 1917
Will Win: 1917
So many technical achievements with 1917, and I think it will pick up some wins here.

Sound Mixing:
Should Win: 1917
Will Win: 1917

Production Design:
Should Win: Jojo Rabbit
Will Win: Once Upon a Time... in Hollywood

Original Score:
Should Win: Marriage Story
Will Win: Joker
And actually, if you have a chance to listen to the Fresh Air interview with Todd Phillips, it's a great story of the musical score.

Original Song:
Should Win: Stand Up, Harriet
Will Win: I'm Gonna Love me Again, Rocketman
Look, it was a great song from a really good movie.  But I like songs with a strong message.  And I'm still mad Lady Gaga didn't win for "Til It Happens to You," from The Hunting Ground.

Makeup and Hairstyling:
Should Win: Bombshell
Will Win: Bombshell
Guys, she looked EXACTLY like Megyn Kelly.

Costume Design:
Should Win: Once Upon a Time... in Hollywood
Will Win: Little Women
The Academy LOVES period pieces.  The further back the time period, the more likely the Oscars win.  Go through the winners and nominees from prior years and tell me I'm wrong. Elizabethan almost always has the best chance.  1868 is the farthest back on this list, so I'm pretty sure it will win.  (PS The Irishman was a movie almost totally costumed in men's suits.  How does it get on this list???)

Visual Effects:
Should Win: Avengers: End Game
Will Win: 1917
This is a hard category to predict but I've scoured the internet full of predictions and most people think that 1917 is going to take the category.  But this one is usually given purely to the one that has the best effects, and so this one could be a surprise!

Ok babies, get on your high heels, tuxedoes, and sparkly dresses.  Tonight's the night!