Who Will Win? Who Should Win?

We have arrived at the big day! What a year of outstanding movies, incredible performances, and so many historic firsts I've lost count.  Now, I'm not a great prognosticator but I do a lot of research on what some of my favorite ones think, and I try to put those into an aggregate and make my best guesses.  If you win your pool thanks to my picks, don't forget to send me a 10% fee.  Here we go!

Best Picture:
Should Win: Belfast
When the film was over, I immediately said "that's Best Picture."

Will Win: CODA
This is a tough year to predict, but given some of the earlier wins in other awards shows, I think it is going to be CODA.  If I'm wrong, the experts are equally split with The Power of the Dog.  This is one close race!

Director:

Should Win: Jane Campion, The Power of the Dog

Will Win: Jane Campion, The Power of the Dog

Jane reinvented what a cowboy movie looks like and the intensity of this film spoke to me.  Even if you are completely out on Power of the Dog, you have to admit that this is gold standard directing.

Lead Actress:

Should Win: Jessica Chastain, The Eyes of Tammy Faye

Will Win: Jessica Chastain, The Eyes of Tammy Faye

Look for an upset in this category!  Penelope Cruz (Parallel Mothers) and Kristen Stewart (Spencer) are not to be counted out.  I loved The Eyes of Tammy Faye and it's incredible how Chastain just embodied this well known figure.

Lead Actor:

Should Win: Andrew Garfield, tick, tick... Boom!

Will Win: Will Smith, King Richard

I don't think there's much chance of upset in this category, but for the record, Andrew Garfield learned how to sing for that movie.  Will Smith is a Hollywood darling and here's his first chance to take the prize.

Supporting Actress:

Should Win: Ariana DeBose, West Side Story

Will Win: Ariana DeBose, West Side Story

Supporting Actor:

Should Win: Troy Kotsur, CODA

Will Win: Troy Kotsur, CODA

And will mark the first deaf man to win an Oscar in history.

Adapted Screenplay:

Should Win: GRRRR, don't make me choose! Ok, The Lost Daughter

Will Win: CODA (I hope, I'm loving all of the recognition CODA is getting)

Original Screenplay:

Should Win: Belfast

Will Win: Belfast (but maybe Licorice Pizza)

This category is often won by a film that should win a Best Picture award but doesn't.  I'm going with Belfast and praying that Licorice Pizza is not awarded that prize.

Cinematography:

Should Win: The Tragedy of Macbeth

Will Win: The Power of the Dog

Or maybe Dune, but cinematographers do love a good countryside and expansive views.  Dune had this as well and frankly is predicted to win a lot of the technical categories. Hard to know, but I'm slightly giving the edge to Power of the Dog which got so much more attention than Dune did, despite being tied for numbers of nominations.

Costume Design:

Should Win: Cruella with an honorable mention to West Side Story

Will Win: Cruella

Boy oh boy, were those costumes incredible!

Film Editing:

Should Win: tick, tick... Boom!

Will Win: Dune

Here's where you're going to start seeing a slew of Dune predictions.  But truly, the film was edited magnificently.

Makeup and Hair:

Should Win: The Eyes of Tammy Faye

Will Win: The Eyes of Tammy Faye

Production Design:

Should Win: Nightmare Alley

Will Win: Dune

Original Score:

Should Win: Encanto

Will Win: Dune

Original Song:

Should Win: "Somehow You Do" Four Good Days

Will Win: "No Time to Die" No Time to Die

Sound:

Should Win: West Side Story

Will Win: Dune

Visual Effects:

Should Win: Shang-Chi and the Legend of the Ten Rings

Will Win: Dune

Animated Feature:

Should Win: Flee

Will Win: Encanto

I'd even love to see the Mitchells vs the Machines, and sometimes the academy does snub Disney films,  Flee was the most important and powerful of the nominees, and deserves to win.

Documentary:

Should Win: Writing with Fire (but also Summer of Soul as a tie, please)

Will Win: Summer of Soul (... or, When the Revolution Could Not be Televised)

International Feature:

Should Win: The Worst Person in the World

Will Win: Drive My Car

Critics have said that Drive My Car was the best film of the year and should win Best Picture, as well.  I disagree.

Animated Short:

Should Win: None of them.  Robin Robin was the least annoying.

Will Win: Robin Robin, I guess.  Windshield Wiper could upset.

Documentary Short:

Should Win: Lead Me Home

Will Win: The Queen of Basketball

The films were excellent in this category this year, but I think the attraction of a woman athlete who was almost recruited to the NBA will win hearts.  But Lead Me Home is the most important and gut wrenching of the nominees.

Live Action Short:

Should Win: All of them, but especially Please Hold

Will Win: The Long Goodbye

This is also a tough category because of how great all (but maybe 1) were.

Ok, those are my picks!  Would love to hear yours...